FREE

BQE: Evaluating the Blue-Sky Opportunity

What you need to know:
• BQE has various blue-sky opportunities ahead which we do not account for in our model. This report breaks down each opportunity to paint a picture of a bull case scenario for the Company.
• This includes company maker projects, new applications and technologies, the mining bull cycle, capital allocation plans, geographic expansion, trust in management, and multiple expansion.

Since BQE Water (BQE:TSXV, BTQNF:OTC) stock has stabilized over the past few months, we would like to spend some time outlining the blue sky opportunity ahead for the Company. This includes various factors that are not accounted for in our model including company maker projects, new applications of its IP, the mining bull cycle, capital allocation, geographic expansion, trust in management, and multiple expansion. In this blue-sky scenario, we can see BQE posting $15M in EBITDA in 2027 and trading at 13x EBITDA, resulting in a blue-sky target of $156/share. We are maintaining our BUY rating and $80.00/share target price on BQE Water.

Company Maker Projects
BQE has three “company maker” projects in its existing pipeline. Over the years, these projects have gradually progressed through early stages of development which involved BQE’s services to complete technical assessments, piloting, and/or permitting, and have a realistic chance of proceeding to the implementation phase in the time horizon of the next 2 to 5 years. Management defines the company maker projects as water treatment plants with capex >$100M integrated into world-class mining assets with an operating life of over 30 years. Each one of the projects is estimated to generate >$6M in annual recurring revenue for BQE. Reviewing the Company’s newsletters and MD&As over the last three years, we believe that one of the projects is likely Seabridge Gold’s KSM project in BC.

KSM received environmental approvals specifically using BQE’s water treatment technology (including selenium); meaning that if the KSM Mine moves towards production, it will be using BQE. This is largely dependent on Seabridge receiving the necessary financing to move KSM into production ($6.4B) which we see a strong likelihood of happening given its development stage and the rising gold price. Mining.com reported in August that KSM is in partnership conversations with six major gold and copper companies after receiving its “Substantially Started” designation from the B.C. government. However, the project has recently struggled, having been challenged by a First Nations group and Earthjustice.

We remind readers that KSM has a P&P resource of 47.3Moz of gold and 7.3 Blbs of copper and is expected to have a 52-year mine life. As per its 2022 pre-feasibility study, the selenium water treatment will cost Seabridge US$19.6M per year for the life of mine. KSM is likely to have multiple plants through its construction and operational stages. While we do not include any company maker projects in our model, this provides a blue-sky scenario that would transform BQE’s revenue profile.