Report

FISH: Solid Q1; Catalyst-Rich Road Ahead

What you need to know:
• Sailfish Royalty reported Q1 financial results including revenue of $0.6M and adjusted EBITDA of $0.3M.
• Spring Valley continues to advance, most recently receiving an LOI for up to $835M in potential capital from the U.S. Export-Import Bank.
• Mako reported strong drill results from San Albino, potentially expanding its mine life as well as from the El Golfo prospect within the El Jicaro concession, where Sailfish holds a 2% NSR.
• We continue to believe FISH (or its Spring Valley royalty) will be acquired for a significant premium over the coming years.

Yesterday after market close, Sailfish Royalty (FISH:TSXV, SROYF:OTC) announced its financial results for Q1/25. The financials missed our estimates due to timing issues, however, the focus should be shifted to the value of the Spring Valley asset in the event of a sale rather than the short-term financial results. FISH has been one of the best performing royalty firms this year and still has many catalysts ahead. We are maintaining our BUY rating and $2.50/share target price on Sailfish Royalty.

Key Highlights
• Revenue came in at $0.6M (+64% YoY) compared to our expected $1.4M. The miss was largely due to later revenue recognition, with 27,000 ounces of silver delivered to SCZ subsequent to the quarter. During Q1, Mako produced 11.5Koz of gold and 12.0Koz of silver, in line with expectations.
• Gold ounces earned for the quarter came in at 18 compared to 91 in Q1/24. FISH also received and sold 40.5Koz of silver for proceeds of $1.2M.
• Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter of $0.3M compared to our expected $0.6M.
• Q1 net income was ($0.1M) vs. our estimate of $0.5M.
• FISH ended the quarter with $2.2M in cash and $4.1M in debt.

Figure 1: Q1 Financials Summary

Buybacks & Insider Buying
During the quarter, Sailfish bought back 182.6K shares and subsequent to the quarter, the Company bought back 346.7K shares. We have also seen significant insider buying YTD from Wexford Capital (549K shares) and Director Asheef Lalani (76K shares). As such, our conviction in the FISH story has been reinforced.
Underlying
Sailfish Royalty Corp.

Provider
Atrium Research Corporation
Atrium Research Corporation

Atrium Research provides institutional quality issuer paid research on North American public equities using deep fundamental analysis. Our research reports are disseminated through Bloomberg, FactSet, Capital IQ, Reuters and many more, as well as through our social media and email distribution lists. 

Analysts
Ben Pirie

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