SCZ: Soft Q3 Production due to Flooding at Bolivar
What you need to know:• Santacruz reported its Q3/25 production results, missing our expectations mostly due to continued flooding at Bolivar.
• AgEq production came in at 3.4Moz compared to our estimate of 3.9Moz, representing -3% QoQ and -15% YoY.
• While the quarter was weak from a production standpoint, SCZ is still poised to generate large cashflow due to significant increase in the silver price (rising from $34/oz in July to $47/oz at the end of Q3).
This morning, Santacruz Silver (SCZ:TSXV) announced Q3/25 production results from its operating mines and San Lucas ore sourcing business. The production results missed our estimates with total silver equivalent ounces produced of 3.4Moz AgEq in the quarter vs. our estimate of 3.9Moz. This miss was primarily attributed to Bolivar which saw a continued impact from flooding. Caballo Blanco and San Lucas saw stronger results, offsetting the decline from the other assets. We remain bullish on Santacruz given its large cashflow generation and leverage to the silver price. We are maintaining our BUY rating and a target price of C$3.10/share on Santacruz Silver.
Bolivar Mine
In Q3, the Bolivar Mine processed 52.0Kt of ore (-5% QoQ, -26% YoY) and produced 0.4Moz AgEq (-30% QoQ, -54% YoY), made up of 132.1Koz Ag and 3.2Kt Zn. This compares to our estimates of 65.4Kt of material processed and 0.8Moz of AgEq production. Results reflected the continued impact of the May flooding event, which restricted access to high-grade zones; see below for more details on the ongoing dewatering process. Full access is expected to be restored in early 2026, supporting a rebound in silver output from the Pomabamba and Nane areas.
Porco Mine
In Q3, Porco processed 49.2Kt of ore (flat QoQ, +1% YoY), yielding 0.3Moz AgEq
(-12% QoQ, -24% YoY), made up of 92.0Koz Ag and 2.5Kt Zn. This compares to our estimates of 51.6Kt of ore processed and 0.5Moz AgEq produced. Silver output was lower as mining focused on zinc-dominant zones, while zinc production suffered from a 10% decline in zinc head grades.
Caballo Blanco Group
In Q3, the Caballo Blanco Group processed 62.2Kt (+8% QoQ, +7% YoY) of ore and produced 0.7Moz AgEq (+3% QoQ, +9% YoY), made up of 294.5Koz Ag and 4.1Kt Zn. This compares to our estimates for material processed of 59.0Kt and AgEq production of 0.7Moz. The quarter benefited from higher milled tonnes and strong annual silver head grades and recoveries, supporting the overall increase in production.
Santacruz Silver Mining is engaged in the operation, acquisition, exploration and development of mineral properties in Mexico, with a primary focus on silver, but also including gold, zinc and lead. Co. is focused on meeting and maintaining its primary production objective of producing approximately 1.5 million silver equivalent ounces on a yearly basis at its producing property, the Rosario Mine. In addition, Co. is exploring three other mineral properties, being the San Felipe Project (an advanced stage project), the Gavilanes Project (an exploration project), and the El Gachi Property (an early stage exploration project).
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