Report
Stephane Foucaud

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 19/07/2024

Condor Energies (CDR CN)C: Signing first LNG framework agreement in Kazakhstan – Condor has signed a first LNG Framework Agreement for the utilization of LNG to fuel Kazakhstan’s rail locomotives. The agreement was also signed by Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), the national railway operator of Kazakhstan and Wabtec Corporation, a U.S. based locomotive manufacturer with existing facilities in Kazakhstan. KTZ and Wabtec previously signed a memorandum of understanding which includes modernization work to retrofit KTZ’s mainline locomotive fleet for LNG usage and incorporate LNG into new build locomotives. The agreement introduces Condor into this locomotive fleet modernization strategy as the supplier and distributor of the LNG. The agreement also provides a detailed framework whereby the three parties coordinate efforts to ensure that Condor’s LNG production volumes coincide with the delivery of new and converted LNG-powered rail locomotives from Wabtec.

Pharos Energy (PHAR LN)C; Target price of £0.50 per share: Solid production. Net cash increase on track –1H24 production was 5,851 boe/d including 4,456 boe/d in Vietnam and 1,395 bbl/d in Egypt. This compares with production from January to the end of April of 5,755 boe/d including 4,347 boe/d in Vietnam and 1,408 bbl/d in Egypt. This suggests that production in Vietnam in May and June was particularly high (~4,675 boe/d). Pharos has re-iterated its FY24 production guidance of 5.2-6.5 mboe/d including 3.9-5.0 mboe/d in Vietnam and 1.3-1.5 mbbl/d in Egypt. The company continues to expect to spend US$27 mm (net) capex in 2024. Drilling at TGT in Vietnam (two wells) is expected to start in 3Q24. This will increase production. Net cash at the end of June was US$18 mm (we forecasted US$17 mm). This represents an improvement of ~US$25 mm since YE23. The key near term news flow remains the farm-out of an interest in Blocks 125 & 126 in Vietnam. Several interested farm-in parties are awaiting confirmation of timing of a rig slot and clarity on the well cost. Pharos is also negotiating the consolidations of its licences in Egypt with better terms. This could allow the company to start targeting new plays and derisk further resources. EGPC has recently ratified five petroleum agreements for other operators. Further improvement in the business environment in Egypt would be another important catalyst, increasing investment on Pharos’ assets which would result in material production growth.
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VAALCO Energy (EGY US/LN)C; Target price of US$10 per share: Increased reserves and resources estimate in Cote d’Ivoire – The YE23 SEC net 1P reserves in Cote d’Ivoire are estimated at 16.9 mmboe; which compares very favourably with the previous estimate for the WI 1P reserves of 13 mmboe (as of 01/10/2023). The YE23 WI 2P reserves are now estimated at 22.5 mmboe. Adding back production over November and December 2023 (assuming ~5 mbbl/d production), the new estimate represents an increase of ~1.1 mmboe vs the previous estimate of 21.7 mmboe at the end of October 2023. 20.4 mmboe 2C contingent resources have also been identified on the Baobab field. This is in addition to the 10.7 mmboe WI resources we carry for Kossipo. The current dividend yield is ~3.6% and the inventory of organic growth opportunities is very large. We believe that visibility on (1) the redevelopment of Baobab and (2) the development of Ebouri (Gabon) and EG will be a catalyst to the share price.
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IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS

Maha Energy (MAHA-A SS): Operations update in Brazil – WI production in June was 2,947 boe/d (2,608 boe/d in May).

Large gas discovery in Bolivia – The Mayaya Centro-X1 IE well is reported to have unlocked 1.7 tcf of natural gas.

EUROPE

MCF Energy (MCF CN): Upsizing equity raise for Central Europe – The previously announced equity raise for Germany and Austria has been increased from C$2.5 mm to C$4.4 mm.

OKEA Energy (OKEA NO): 2Q24 results – Net cash at the end of June was NOK0.6 mm. The company expects to produce 36-40 mboe/d in Norway in 2024 (35-40 mboe/d previously).

OMV (OMV AG): 2Q24 update – 2Q24 production was 338 mboe/d.

Tenaz Energy (TNZ CN): Acquiring producing asset in the Netherlands – Tenaz is acquiring NAM Offshore from Shell and ExxonMobil for EUR165 mm with an effective date of 01 January 2024. The company produces ~11 mboe/d and generates ~EUR90 mm of free cashflow (2024). Tenaz estimates that the required cash-to-clash close is ~EUR30 mm. 2P reserves are estimates at 53.6 mmboe.

Trillion Energy (TCF CN): Operations update in Turkey – The South Akcakoca-2 well has flowed up to 2.88 mmcf/d from new perforations.

FORMER SOVIET UNION

Enwell Energy (ENW LN LN): Operating update in Ukraine – 2Q24 production was 2,025 boe/d. Enwell held ~US$94 mm in cash at the end of June.

Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG LN): Resources update in Kazakhstan – The Stepnoy Leopard fields are expected to hold 138 mmboe 2P reserves (~25% liquids). This increases Nostrum’s 2P reserves from 23 mmboe to 133 mmboe. There are also 67 mmboe 2C contingent resources in the fields.

SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

BW Energy (BWE NO)/ReconAfrica (RECO CN): Transaction onshore Namibia –ReconAfrica (RECO CN) is raising C$35 mm of new equity priced at C$1.25 per share. Investors participating in the transaction will also receive a warrant for each new share with a strike price of C$1.75 per share. In connection with the transaction, BW Energy will acquire 16.8 mm shares and 16.8 mm warrants in ReconAfrica for US$16 mm (C$22 mm). The shares issued to BW are priced at C$1.30 per share with one warrant per new share with a strike price of C$1.70 per share. BW will also receive 20% interest in PEL73 onshore Namibia where ReconAfrica will provide BW Energy with a carry of US$6.4 mm based on the intended initial work program. BW has agreed to further contingent payments to ReconAfrica of up to US$125 mm including (1) US$22.5 mm on FID, (2) US$22.5 mm one year after first oil, (3) US$5 mm 60 days after first sale of commercial production, (4) US$25 mm upon BW achieving cumulative free cash flow of US$300 mm, (5) US$25 mm upon BW achieving cumulative free cash flow of US$600 mm and (6) a further US$25 mm upon achieving cumulative free cash flow of US$900 mm.

EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
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22/07/2024: Galp Energia (GALP LS) – 2Q24 results
24/07/2024: Equinor (EQNR NO) – 2Q24 results
24/07/2024: Repsol (REP SM) – 2Q24 results
24/07/2024: Eni (ENI IM) – 2Q24 results
Underlyings
Enwell Energy

Regal Petroleum is an independent oil and gas company focused on gas and condensate field development in Ukraine. Co. is engaged in the oil and gas exploration, development and production. Co. developed its Mekhediviska-Golotvshinska and Svyrydivske gas and condensate fields in north-eastern Ukraine, which were held under 100% owned and operated production licenses, as of Dec 31 2016. Co.'s subsidiary, LLC Prom-Enerho Produkt holds a production license over the Vasyschevskoye gas and condensate field, which also includes the Vvdenska prospect, located in the Dnieper-Donets basin in the north-east of Ukraine.

Maha Energy

Maha Energy AB is a Sweden-based independent, international upstream oil and gas company whose business activities include exploration, development and production of crude oil. It directly operates through Maha Energy Inc in Canada, as well as Maha Energy 1 [Brazil] AB and Maha Energy 2 [Brazil] AB in Sweden. It owns an oil field in Wyoming, the United States. The Company specializes in primary, secondary and enhanced oil and gas recovery technologies, and operates a technical office in Calgary and Alberta in Canada, as well as an operations office in Newcastle and Wyoming in the United States. The Company operates as wholly-owned subsidiaries Gran Tierra Finance (Luxembourg) SARL and Gran Tierra Brazco (Luxembourg) SARL.

NOSTRUM OIL & GAS PLC

Okea

Okea ASA is a Norway-based oil company engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production industry. The Company contributes to the value creation on the Norwegian continental shelf with development and operation systems through the utilization of the result of previous and ongoing exploration activities in order to bring undeveloped oil on stream in strategic cooperation with service companies. Its services do not involve the exploration for petroleum. The Company operates an office in Trondheim, Norway.

Pharos Energy

Soco International is an oil and gas exploration and production company. Co. has exploration, development and production interests in Vietnam, and exploration and appraisal interests in the Republic of Congo and Angola. As of Dec 31 2016, Co.'s commercial reserves were 33.3 million barrels of oil equivalent.

TENAZ ENERGY CORP

Trillion Energy International Inc. (TCF)

Vaalco Energy Inc.

VAALCO Energy is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development and production of crude oil. The company is primarily engaged in its Etame Production Sharing Contract related to the Etame Marin block located offshore the Republic of Gabon in West Africa. The company also owns interests in an undeveloped block offshore Equatorial Guinea, West Africa.

Provider
Auctus Advisors
Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.

The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.

Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.

Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services. 

Analysts
Stephane Foucaud

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