Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): On track for first gas in 1Q26
• The MGH-20 well in the North Mengoepeh (MGH) field tested 2.8 mmcf/d with associated oil. This is a positive surprise as there are currently no estimated resources at the field that was shut in in 2014.• Following the extended well test at SE-MGH, Criterium plans to initiate extended testing on MGH-20 and three additional shut-in wells on the North MGH well pad.
• Assuming two wells are brought online, North MGH could add 2–3 mmcf/d to SE-MGH output, lifting combined volumes to 7–10 mmcf/d in 2H26. The estimated development cost to reach first gas at North MGH is ~US$1 mm, while SE-MGH remains on track for 1Q26 production, supported by 15 bcf of 2C contingent resources and a capital budget of US$3–5 mm.
• SE-MGH re-entry operations are ongoing with initial well testing scheduled for August.
• We re-iterate our target price C$0.35 in line with our ReNAV.
Take away from 2Q25
Oil production for 2Q25 averaged 890 bbl/d, impacted by pump failures at the Pematang Lantih field, which temporarily curtailed ~60–80 bbl/d in June. Realizations were at a US$3/bbl premium to Brent (we assumed only US$1/bbl premium). Operating netbacks were relatively stable at US$22/bbl in 2Q25 despite a ~US$5/bbl reduction in oil price.
Valuation
We have increased our gas production forecast from 3Q26 to incorporate North MGH. We now estimates that the gas business will generate free cash flow of US$8 mm per year at plateau production on SE. and North MGH alone. This is partially offset by more cautious expectations for oil production. Criterium shares trade at ~50% of our 2P NAV. Developing SE-MGH and North MGH would add C$0.16/sh, Macan Gedang, C$0.08/sh and Cerah, C$0.18/sh for a total potential valuation of C$0.50/sh. We are not carrying any value for MGH-43 pending visibility on resources. Our ReNAV for Criterium is C$0.33 per share.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
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