Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Replacing 160% of FY24 oil production. Gas contingent resources increased by ~40%
• At YE24, Criterium was estimated to hold 4.6 mmbbl 2P oil reserves, a slight increase from estimated YE23, as the reserves additions from the work-over program (especially the new GH sand) more tan offsets FY24 production of approximately 0.3 mmboe.• The after-tax NPV10 of the 2P reserves is US$60 mm.
• The 2C contingent gas resources at Tungkal are estimated at 27.5 bcf, higher than the previous estimate of 20 bcf. The auditor has attributed a 90% chance of development to Southeast Mengoepeh (2C resources of 14.9 bcf). The 12.6 bcf at Macan Gedang currently carries a 30% chance of development as the development is "unclarified." As a development plan gets submitted to the auditor, the chance of development is expected to increase to 90%. Macan Gedang is anticipated to come onstream in late 2026 or early 2027.
• Once Southeast Mengoepeh is onstream in 1Q26, Criterium will re-enter or twin the Cerah-1 well. The previous well encountered gas shows in the Gumai formation but was not tested at the time due to low gas prices and lack of available infrastructure. It was plugged and abandoned and is only 450 meters deep. The prospect is estimated to hold 7.4-93.4 bcf recoverable resources (best case of 26.2 bcf) with a 45% chance of geological success.
• The NW Cerah and Berkas prospects could add a further 8.4-77 bcf prospective resources (best case of 24.8 bcf) with a geological chance of success of 25-30%.
• As we incorporate the new reserves and gas contingent resources, we are increasing our target price from C$0.30 per share to C$0.35 in line with our ReNAV.
Valuation
Our Core NAV is now C$0.32 per share with a ReNAV of C$0.34 per share.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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