Report
Stephane Foucaud

Criterium Energy Ltd (TSX-V: CEQ): Stepping on the gas

• The staged development of gas discoveries at Tungkal is the primary driver of near-term growth. Assuming flat oil production, bringing just two gas discoveries online could enable Criterium to triple output to ~3 mboe/d and triple 2P reserves by early 2027
• The first discovery to be developed, SE MGH (15 bcf 2C resources), is expected to see resource conversion to reserves in 2025. In early 3Q25, the existing well—previously tested at 8 mmcf/d—will be re-tested, with initial production of 5-7 mmcf/d anticipated by 1Q26. Capex to first gas is estimated at US$3-5 mm, with the 14 km pipeline to the existing facility funded by the off-taker in exchange for a small gas transportation fee. This initial development is forecast to generate ~US$6 mm FCF per year and, due to fixed gas prices, FCF remains insulated from oil price fluctuations, equating to 1.2-2x the initial capex annually.
• In 2026, Criterium will advance Macan Gedang (12.6 bcf), situated 15 km from SE MGH, with similar development capex. Production is slated to commence late 2026 or early 2027, with the well previously tested at ~5 mmcf/d.
• Three more gas discoveries, scheduled for testing by YE26, could contribute an additional 3 mboe/d to 6 mboe/d (assuming comparable IPs). (i) Four wells at North MGH were shut-in in 2014 due to high GOR. (ii) Drilled in 2025, the MGH-43 infill well encountered gas in the Gumai formation. Resources for these two opportunities have yet to be estimated. (iii) Criterium plans to re-enter or twin the Cerah-1 well. The prospect is estimated to hold 26.2 bcf P50 prospective resources.
• The NW Cerah and Berkas prospects could add another 24.8 bcf (best case).
• We re-iterate our target price C$0.35 in line with our ReNAV.

1Q25 production update and YE24 financials
1Q25 oil production was 988 bbl/d (+3% vs 4Q24). Pump failures in the Pematang Lantih field took ~60-80 bbl/d offline in February. Criterium’s oil realizations were at a US$3.5/bbl premium to Brent in Q125. This is higher than the US$1/bbl that we expected.

Valuation
Our 2P NAV for Criterium is ~C$0.18/sh. Developing SE MGH would add C$0.12/sh, Macan Gedang, C$0.08/sh and Cerah, C$0.18/sh for a total potential valuation of C$0.54/sh. We are not carrying any value for MGH-43 or North MGH pending visibility on resources. Our ReNAV for Criterium is C$0.33 per share.
Underlying
Criterium Energy Ltd.

Provider
Auctus Advisors
Auctus Advisors

Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.

The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.

Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.

Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services. 

Analysts
Stephane Foucaud

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