BGC Partners - Aygaz A.S. (AYGAZ) BGC PARTNERS - 1Q18 AYGAZ WORSE

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BGC Partners

Ezgi Yilmaz

BGC PARTNERS - 1Q18 AYGAZ WORSE

HOLD Maintained... We revised our valuation for Aygaz on the back of weaker 1Q18 financials, revisions in Tupras and our new crude oil price and discount rate assumptions. Our current ex-dividend target price stands at TL13.80, pointing to a 12-month total return of 22%.

10/05/2018 2 EN

Underlying

Aygaz A.S.

Aygaz is a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) distribution company operating in a range of environments from cylinder production to marine transport operations. In its core business field, Co. distributes LPG as autogas, cylinder gas, and bulk gas, manufactures and sells LPG cylinders, tanks, valves and regulators, and also markets LPG-operated devices. Co. also sells and produces LPG devices and engaged in the maritime shipping of LPG. In the cylinder gas segment, Co. operates all over Turkey in points of sale under the brands of Aygaz, Mogaz and Lipetgaz. Co. has three segments: gas and petroleum products, electricity and other operations.

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TRAAYGAZ91E0 Istanbul Stock Exchange Turkey

Provider

BGC Partners

BGC has been one of the major market players in Turkish OTC debt, FX and swaps markets since 1998.

We started offering corporate finance and investment banking services to our clients in 2013. We offer a complete range of financial services to help our clients achieve their goals. Our main areas of activity within investment banking are as follows:

Mergers & Acquisitions
Equity Capital Markets
Debt Finance & Advisory

See profile

Analysts

Ezgi Yilmaz

Other Reports on these Companies

Ünlü&Co

Model Portfolio Update - Removing Aygaz from our Model Portfolio

Following a very strong run and the partial normalization of the core valuation anomaly that underpinned our initial call, we have downgraded Aygaz to Hold from Buy and simultaneously remove it from our model portfolio, while retaining a constructive fundamental stance. Since the inclusion in our model portfolio, the shares are up 23% in USD, outperforming the BIST-100 by 22%. At the time of our rating upgrade, Aygaz’s participation portfolio (Tupras, Opet Aygaz REIC, United LPG, Sendeo) more than covered its market cap, implying a near-zero value for the domestic LPG franchise. Following the...

EUR 57.48

November 26, 2025 November 26, 2025 1 EN

Ünlü&Co

Aygaz - Relative upside compression following strong run. Downgrade to Hold.

Downgraded to Hold on risk/reward normalization: Since our upgrade to Buy on 30 July 2025, Aygaz has delivered a 31% return in USD, outperforming the BIST-100 by 32% and Tupras by 12%. This has substantially eroded the relative valuation cushion. Our 12M TP of TL272/share is unchanged, but implied upside has compressed to 30%, versus 43% for our coverage universe and 40% for our ex-banks coverage. On a 12M rating basis, this moves Aygaz into Hold territory: we continue to like the name fundamentally but see a more balanced risk/reward versus higher-upside alternatives in our stack. Core busin...

EUR 57.48

November 26, 2025 November 26, 2025 1 EN

Ünlü&Co

Monthly Refining Margin Data (October 2025)

In October, within mid distillates, diesel cracks (in USD/bbl.) registered at 26.4 (down 0.2 m/m, up 11.4 y/y) and jet fuel cracks registered at 24.2 (up 2.6 m/m, up 10.8 y/y) based on Tupras provided data. Gasoline cracks came to 18.4 (down 3.4 m/m, up 4.5 y/y). HSFO cracks were realized at negative 5.3 (up 0.7 m/m, down 1.1 y/y). Differentials were slightly wider m/m. As outlined in our report published today, regional mid distillate cracks remain strong in the region, as evidenced in this monthly data point. We do not expect this level of elevated cracks to persist structurally in the long...

EUR 57.48

November 3, 2025 November 3, 2025 1 EN

BGC Partners: TURKEY - Central Government Budget continued to improve in February

Finance Ministry released February Central Government budget figures and the data showed further improvement in budget balances, as already suggested by the Treasury cash budget figures.

EUR 103.46

March 16, 2020 March 16, 2020 1 EN

Cagdas Dogan

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners: TURKEY - CBT Expectation Survey: No major change in inflation forecasts and a 50bps rate cut expectation from the CBT next week...

OUR TAKE: We observe no major change in inflation expectations, as the positive surprise in February reading seems to be offset by increased depreciation pressure on TL, while 2020 GDP growth forecast has been cut for the first time since July 2019. Meanwhile, there seems to be a 50bps rate cut expectation from the CBT in next weekâ€™s meeting, 100bps over the next three months, and 175bps over the next twelve months. We currently plug in a 50bps rate cut in our forecasts in next weekâ€™s meeting, followed by a 25bps in the April meeting. (CBT, BGC Partners)

EUR 103.46

March 13, 2020 March 13, 2020 2 EN

Cagdas Dogan

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners: TURKEY - Retail sales volume maintained a strong trend in January

According to Turkstat, retail sales volume registered a 9.6% y/y expansion in January 2020 in unadjusted terms; while the calendar-adjusted figure also increased by 9.6% y/y in January, which is a quite strong figure, albeit indicating a mild slow down compared to the 11.9% increase recorded in December 2019.

EUR 103.46

March 13, 2020 March 13, 2020 2 EN

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BGC PARTNERS - 1Q18 AYGAZ WORSE

Model Portfolio Update - Removing Aygaz from our Model Portfolio

Aygaz - Relative upside compression following strong run. Downgrade to Hold.

Monthly Refining Margin Data (October 2025)

BGC Partners: TURKEY - Central Government Budget continued to improve in February

BGC Partners: TURKEY - CBT Expectation Survey: No major change in inflation forecasts and a 50bps rate cut expectation from the CBT next week...

BGC Partners: TURKEY - Retail sales volume maintained a strong trend in January

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