BGC Partners - Turk Traktor ve Ziraat Makineleri A.S. (TTRAK) BGC Partners: TTRAK - POSITIVE: Aug -19 trade data, measured recovery in domestic shipments on low base (+39% y/y, -6% m/m), but lower exports (-33% y/y, -51% m/m),

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BGC Partners

Berna Kurbay

EUR 103.27 For Business Accounts Only

BGC Partners: TTRAK - POSITIVE: Aug -19 trade data, measured recovery in domestic shipments on low base (+39% y/y, -6% m/m), but lower exports (-33% y/y, -51% m/m),

We view the August data as positive net/net; as it confirms the reiteration of the companyâ€™s domestic market/domestic sales guidance in the aftermath of the 2Q19 results which hinged upon the assumption of recovery in 2H19 on an extremely low base in 2H18. August exports, although showing a monthly decline for the first time in 2019, also do not signal a deviation from the guidance considering the performance in the first eight months of 2019.

04/09/2019 3 EN

Underlying

Turk Traktor ve Ziraat Makineleri A.S.

Turk Traktor Ve Ziraat Makineleri is engaged in the manufacturing of agricultural machinery, such as tractors, harvesting machinery and earth moving machinery, and its allied parts, including gearboxes, transmission boxes, engine blocks, cylinder heads and hydraulic lifters. Co. sells New Holland and Case IH branded vehicles and equipments. Co. exports its products to over 50 countries.

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TRETTRK00010 Istanbul Stock Exchange Turkey

Provider

BGC Partners

BGC has been one of the major market players in Turkish OTC debt, FX and swaps markets since 1998.

We started offering corporate finance and investment banking services to our clients in 2013. We offer a complete range of financial services to help our clients achieve their goals. Our main areas of activity within investment banking are as follows:

Mergers & Acquisitions
Equity Capital Markets
Debt Finance & Advisory

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Analysts

Berna Kurbay

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OUR TAKE: We observe no major change in inflation expectations, as the positive surprise in February reading seems to be offset by increased depreciation pressure on TL, while 2020 GDP growth forecast has been cut for the first time since July 2019. Meanwhile, there seems to be a 50bps rate cut expectation from the CBT in next weekâ€™s meeting, 100bps over the next three months, and 175bps over the next twelve months. We currently plug in a 50bps rate cut in our forecasts in next weekâ€™s meeting, followed by a 25bps in the April meeting. (CBT, BGC Partners)

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BGC Partners: TTRAK - POSITIVE: Aug -19 trade data, measured recovery in domestic shipments on low base (+39% y/y, -6% m/m), but lower exports (-33% y/y, -51% m/m),

EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly

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BGC Partners: TURKEY - Central Government Budget continued to improve in February

BGC Partners: TURKEY - CBT Expectation Survey: No major change in inflation forecasts and a 50bps rate cut expectation from the CBT next week...

BGC Partners: TURKEY - Retail sales volume maintained a strong trend in January

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