Markets were calmer last week as investors continue to look towards potential rate cuts in the US in September. Chair Jerome Powell at his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, 23 August, sent strong signals that the Fed is ready to cut key rates. “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear". Markets now price up to 100bp in US key rates cut till the end of the year and a further 125bp of cuts next year. We view the macro backdrop as supportive for EM credit, while new sup...
We believe that Turkish banks passed the lowest point of the year in terms of net interest margins (NIM) in 2Q24. With some aspects of full-year guidance tweaked after the first-half reporting season, we now expect these banks' performance to be broadly in line with the updated FY24 targets.
Turk Traktor has surpassed expectations and improved its cash position during 2023. However, after a year marked by historically high net income, we anticipate lower profitability in terms of USD for 2024. With our updated estimates, including the impact of inflationary accounting, Turk Traktor trades at 9.4x 2024E P/E, indicating an 12% discount to its peers. We have raised our target price to TL1,025 per share and maintain HOLD rating, given the recent share price outperformance. Turk Traktor ...
We are adjusting our forecasts to reflect higher pricing and improved profitability compared to our previous projections, as well as an improved net cash position. As a result, we are increasing our target price to TL853 per share (previously TL315). Nevertheless, we are maintaining our HOLD rating, mainly due to the robust absolute performance of the shares. Our forecasts indicate a net income of TL9bn and a P/E ratio of 8.5x in 2023. With a 90% dividend payout, we incorporate TL81 per share in...
Buying opportunities in EM bonds? Yes, if you believe the key rates hiking cycle is soon at its end… Next week we hope the volatility amplitude will calm down following contained stress in financial markets caused by recent troubles in the US and EU banking systems, emergency actions and further tightening of monetary conditions. EM credit spreads technically widened recently, and cautious demand emerged. In this report we review our trade ideas we made before the storm started.
Removing Turk Traktor from our model portfolio: Turk Traktor has outperformed BIST-100 by 20% and returned 71% in absolute terms since its inclusion to our model portfolio on October 3, 2022. Following the strong outperformance, we remove the stock from our model portfolio, while we maintain our BUY rating. We revise target price per share to TL550 (TL406 earlier), due to improved working capital and cash flow management in 3Q22 and projection of a better operational performance, thanks to buo...
Including Turk Traktor to our model portfolio: We are including Turk Traktor to our model portfolio. We expect potential increase in income of farmers, thanks to a better harvest and a steep increase in grain pricing, plus a downtrend in subsidised tractor loan rates to underpin growth in tractor demand in 2023. We foresee superior growth in Turk Traktor’s volumes, with market share gains and higher exports to drive growth in 2023. Thus, incorporating volume increases and inflationary trends, w...
We expect potential increase in income of farmers, thanks to a better harvest and a steep increase in grain pricing, plus a downtrend in subsidised tractor loan rates to underpin growth in tractor demand in 2023. We foresee superior growth in Turk Traktor’s volumes, with market share gains and higher exports to drive growth in 2023. Thus, incorporating volume increases and inflationary trends, we raise our target price to TL406 (from TL275). We maintain our BUY rating. At a 7.1x 2022E P/E, Turk ...
The general evaluation of TURK TRAKTOR VE (TR), a company active in the Commercial Vehicles & Trucks industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 4 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as defensive. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Positive. As of the analysis date January 18, 2022, the closing price was T...
Full Article at IIR has reaffirmed its Recommended rating for PIA after undertaking a review post the appointment of a new Portfolio Manager, Harding Loevner. The full report can be found on the IIR website. On 26 July 2021, Pengana International Equities Limited (PIA) announced a fully franked dividend of 1.35 cents per share for the June quarter. This represents an 8% increase on the March quarter dividend and takes the total dividends declared for FY21 of 5.1 cents per share, fully franked....
- Turk Traktor released the operational figures for September 2020. - Turk Traktor sold 3,508 units of tractors in September 2020, up by 41% YoY and 41% MoM. With September data, Turk Traktors 3Q total sales units rose by 32% YoY to 9,038 units. - Looking at the breakdown, Turk Traktors domestic sales rose by 147% YoY to 2,420 units while exports were down by 43% YoY to 1,088 units in September 2020. In 3Q20, its domestic sales advanced by 133% YoY and exports were down by 26% YoY. Attractiv...
Turk Traktor announced outstanding 2q20 results with TL77m net income (2q19: TL14m, estimates: UNLU: TL57m, Consensus: TL63m). The company also raised domestic sales forecast to 19- 21.5k units, (74-97% y/y) from 12.5-15.5k units in 2020. Domestic market size estimate is now 41-46k units, +59-78% (28-33k units earlier). We note that the favorable interest rates, pent-up demand, and improving affordability of farmers should drive stronger tractor sales than before. We also think that the manageme...
This analysis by GLOBAL Securities is presented to you by Raiffeisen Centrobank AG. Raiffeisen Centrobank AG acts solely as a distributor of this analysis and has not introduced any material changes to the content of this analysis or any recommendation included herein. Turkey - TTRAK: Sales and Production for May According to the monthly sales and production report of the company, TTRAK’s total sales decreased by 31% YoY to 1,548 in May20 from 2,233 in May19. While domestic sales increased by...
We maintain our positive stance on Turk Traktor, owing to its strong fundamentals post Covid-19 and the relatively better market environment for the agriculture sector in 2020. The incentivised tractor loan rates, as well as the six-month deferral of loan/interest payments for the period until the end of June, should also be supportive for tractor demand. We are now less fearful regarding the 2q20 performance and expect that easing borrowing costs and healthy WC management to lead to earnings im...
This analysis by GLOBAL Securities is presented to you by Raiffeisen Centrobank AG. Raiffeisen Centrobank AG acts solely as a distributor of this analysis and has not introduced any material changes to the content of this analysis or any recommendation included herein. Turk Traktor - Well positioned in promising tractor market, May 14, 2020 Turk Traktor is the largest player in Turkish tractor market with a 45% market share in 2019. Through its dealer and after-sales network, Turk Traktor m...
Two key developments so far in 2020… 1) As of January 2020, 50% interest rate subsidy on tractor loans from Ziraat Bank has become available for loans up to TL500k (vs. TL75k before) if the tractor is locally built, with the base loan rate lower at 9% vs. 12% before; which should fuel tractor demand; 2) Turk Traktor unveiled 2020E guidance last week, pointing to ~18% growth in Turkish tractor demand and total unit sales (domestic+export) growth of ~10%; at the mid-point of the guidance range....
Turk Traktor reported 4Q19 net profit of TL68mn (-8% y/y), higher than expected… Turk Traktor beat our 4Q19 net profit estimate by 21% and consensus by 17%. The reported 4Q19 net profit of TL68mn (-8% y/y) brought the net profit for 2019 to TL112mn (-53% y/y). Turk Traktor’s 4Q19 EBITDA margin at 11.8% is in fact 10% lower than our projections on higher selling and marketing expenses.
Turk Traktor announces November trade data showing 73% jump y/y in domestic sales and 38% decline in exports, good data in line with expectations… Domestic sales in November continued to rebound on weak base, as observed in the previous three months. Exports have declined 38% y/y in November but are still strong when evaluated within the context of the company’s full-year guidance
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