Due to daisy cutter crude supply shortage in the aftermath of rapidly falling Iranian and Venezuelan crude exports we have recently raised our oil price assumptions for 2018 and 2019 to USD 75.6/bbl for 2018 and USD 75/bbl for 2019 from our previous estimates of USD 57/bbl and USD 60/bbl, respectively. Accordingly, we lifted our clean CCS EBITDA forecasts for 2018 and 2019 from EUR 4.8 bln and EUR 5.4 bln to EUR 5.4 bln (+10% YoY) and EUR 6.0 bln (+12% YoY).
Based on our higher earnings estimates we also raised our 12-m TP from EUR 50.4 to EUR 57 a share, leaving a nearly 16% upside potential from the current share price. Our TP is justified by a stable mid-term earnings and FCF outlook against the backdrop of still supportive refining margins, products volume growth and oil prices stabilizing well above USD 70/bbl.
OMV is an international energy company with activities in Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing including petrochemicals (R&M), and Gas and Power (G&P). Co. explores and develops oil and gas resources and supply energy to over 100 million people. OMV has three operating segments: Exploration and Production (E&P), Refining and Marketing, including petrochemicals (R&M), and Gas and Power (G&P), as well as the segment Corporate and Other (Co&O).
Concorde Securities Ltd. is Hungary’s leading independent company engaged in investment banking activities. It provides its clients with integrated financial services, including securities trading, research, corporate financing advisory, capital market transactions, wealth management and investment advisory. The operational management of the company is the responsibility of the CEO, while the owners/managers (who control one-third of the company through their shares and options) are in charge of its strategic governance. Concorde Securities Ltd. is a member of the Budapest, Frankfurt, Warsaw and Bucharest stock exchanges, as well as of the Hungarian Association of Investment Service Providers.
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