In the midst of transition
We raise our 12-month TP to HUF 10,010 a share from HUF 7,600 basically for 3 reasons: 1) rolling over our TP; 2) incorporating higher risk-adjusted estimate for royalty income on Vraylar (not counting on one-off sales related royalties any longer), and 3) the future value contribution from new product launches (Relugolix and Estelle) and the recently brought contraceptive patch, Evra.
We estimate that Vraylar is worth HUF 5,303 a share (53% of our TP) compared to our previous estimates of HUF 4,550 a share and 60% of our TP, respectively. We further add that, there might be significant upside risk to our TP owing to Vraylar. Our TP grows HUF 777 a share on every USD 500 mn increase in Vraylar’s US peak sales.
Chemical Works of Richter Gedeon is a multinational pharmaceutical company that is engaged in the research, development, production and marketing and trade of pharmaceutical products. Co.'s activities are divided into two major business segments: Pharmaceutical, including research, development and manufacturing of pharmaceutical products; and Wholesale and Retail including wholesale and retail trade through the distribution chain as well as marketing of its products. Co. is primarily engaged in production of gynecological, cardiovascular and gastroenterological products, antibiotics, antimicotics, OTC and medicines for treatment of the central nervous system.
Concorde Securities Ltd. is Hungary’s leading independent company engaged in investment banking activities. It provides its clients with integrated financial services, including securities trading, research, corporate financing advisory, capital market transactions, wealth management and investment advisory. The operational management of the company is the responsibility of the CEO, while the owners/managers (who control one-third of the company through their shares and options) are in charge of its strategic governance. Concorde Securities Ltd. is a member of the Budapest, Frankfurt, Warsaw and Bucharest stock exchanges, as well as of the Hungarian Association of Investment Service Providers.
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