031518 CGI FX & Commodities Outlook
The US political circus show seems to have many rings, with plenty of action to occupy the spectators in each one. Around lunchtime in New York, it was reported by CNBC that President Donald Trump plans to name Larry Kudlow as his top economic advisor to replace Gary Cohn, who left the White House earlier this month amid disagreements about tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Separately, it was reported by the New York Times that that Attorney General Jeff Sessions is reviewing a recommendation to fire the former FBI deputy director, Andrew G. McCabe, just days before he is scheduled to retire on Sunday. Rounding out a busy day, in a statement on the USTR website, Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer announced that the US has requested dispute settlement consultations with the Government of India at the WTO, challenging Indian export subsidy programs.
In economic news, US retail sales fell for a third straight month in February as households cut back on purchases of motor vehicles and other big-ticket items. The Commerce Department said retail sales fell 0.1% last month against consensus expectations of a +0.3% monthly rise. It was the first time since April 2012 that retail sales have declined for three straight months. After the numbers were published, the Atlanta Fed yet again slashed its Q1 GDP forecast; this time from 2.5% to just 1.9%. As recently as end-January, the model was signaling a 5.4% pace of growth in Q1. Later today we'll have two surveys of business activity: the Philly Fed and Empire Manufacturing reports as well as the NAHB house builders index
The International Energy Agency today said it increased its global demand growth outlook for 2018 by 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.5 Mn bpd. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia forecast was raised to 32.4 Mn bpd from 32.3 Mn bpd in February. Its forecasts for non-OPEC supply was unchanged at 1.8 Mn bpd. The EIA noted that changes in trade policy could have a negative impact on oil production, with a slowdown most likely hitting maritime and trucking fuels. After the report, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were trading at $60.95 a barrel compared to $61.08 prior. Global oil supply in February fell slightly to 97.9 Mn bpd but was higher compared to the year before. An increase in non-OPEC output pushed the oil supply up by 0.7 Mn bpd compared to 2017. Meanwhile OPEC crude oil production decreased to 32.1 Mn bpd in February. This was more than offset by the drawdown in product inventories, which, in the case of gasoline, saw a 6.3 Mn barrel draw.
Creative Global Investments LLC (CGI) is a Multi asset Investment Strategy & Investment Research firm. Our focus is on providing a multi asset investment strategy research based on a proprietary dynamic research process.
It identifies major themes with implications for the global financial markets and provides projections of aggregate corporate profits, valuation, profit margin, size and style trends, and long-term targets of the major equity indices. We apply fundamental, empirical, and technical research to complement its thematic and macro-driven approach. Additionally, an analytical and quantitative approach to provide a macro-economic framework, and create forecasts and projections of economic growth, inflation, and short and long-term interest rates.
We identify the sectors and industry groups most impacted by future legislative and regulatory actions, within the context of the dynamic political environment. CGI offers insights on the changing policy landscape and the risks and opportunities, utilizing contacts within the public and private sectors to provide information, to identify investment opportunity.
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CGI LLC was founded in 2002, and is based in New York, New York, with additional offices in Luxemburg and Croatia.
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