Report
Creative Global Investments
Carlo Besenius ...
  • Stjepan Kalinic
EUR 157.00 For Business Accounts Only

071518 Weekly Currnecies & Fixed Income Strategy Update

Short-term political concerns remain elevated. 
US economic focuses this week are on the FOMC announcement on the Fed Fund rate today and the July Employment report on Friday.
We think for the coming weeks, yields for the 10-Year are capped at the flag's implied target of 3.14%, the highest level since mid-2011, implying a much faster pace of tightening, how might that affect equities?
We still believe that investors should reevaluate their current holdings, and pay close attention to the seasonal forces that likely will come into play in the short term.  We are advising investors to invest along the seasonal trends:
 
 
·       Buy US treasuries (10-Y’s and 30-Y’s)
·       Buy Commodities (Oil; Gold; Metals; Agri’s)
·       Sell USD
·       Sell European, US and Japanese equities
 
Seasonally, the next period of strength for US treasuries comes into play until the month of October. Whilst bond investors have accepted higher interest rates, and there are increasing concerns about the US 10-year yields likely moving higher over the next 2 years, we continue to differ with those general views.
As a matter of fact, we argue that Japanese and European balanced fund managers likely will increase exposure towards US long bonds, due to the extremely high spreads over the indigenous comparable bond yields. Hence, why we see the next 2 months 10-Y US Treasuries prices to increase and implicitly yields to come down towards the upper middle of the 37-year trend channel.
15/08/2018 9 EN
Provider
Creative Global Investments
Creative Global Investments

Creative Global Investments LLC (CGI) is a Multi asset Investment Strategy & Investment Research firm. Our focus is on providing a multi asset investment strategy research based on a proprietary dynamic research process.

It identifies major themes with implications for the global financial markets and provides projections of aggregate corporate profits, valuation, profit margin, size and style trends, and long-term targets of the major equity indices. We apply fundamental, empirical, and technical research to complement its thematic and macro-driven approach. Additionally, an analytical and quantitative approach to provide a macro-economic framework, and create forecasts and projections of economic growth, inflation, and short and long-term interest rates.

We identify the sectors and industry groups most impacted by future legislative and regulatory actions, within the context of the dynamic political environment. CGI offers insights on the changing policy landscape and the risks and opportunities, utilizing contacts within the public and private sectors to provide information, to identify investment opportunity.

We have developed and fine-tuned a dynamic 6-step combination investment strategy and research methodology and process, which is integral to all Creative Global Investments LLC client research by order of priority:

  1. Global Macro Analysis Overlay
  2. Chart Technical Analysis
  3. Seasonality Analysis
  4. Fundamental Analysis
  5. Investor Behavioral Analytics
  6. Geo-political risk assessment

We can also provide customized and specific research solutions and special projects, besides capital market and corporate advisory services for private equity firms.

Our research product and regular periodic publications for various asset classes include annual and quarterly Investment Outlook & Strategy reports, weekly Strategy reports per asset class, thematic reports, sentiment indicator, which helps in analyzing the trajectory of market, sector and industry group trends. CGI caters to global institutional fixed income and equity clients.

CGI LLC was founded in 2002, and is based in New York, New York, with additional offices in Luxemburg and Croatia.

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Carlo Besenius

Stjepan Kalinic

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