082718 Weekly Currnecies & Fixed Income Strategy Update
Most markets globally responded favorably to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium. Equity prices on both sides of the border moved higher, bond prices rallied, the USD moved lower and the price of gold moved higher.
A US report on durable goods orders showed a rather weak headline result. The headline showed that durable goods orders declined by -1.7% in July, missing the analyst consensus estimate calling for a decline of -0.8%. However, analysts were encouraged by the 1.4% increase in core capital goods orders, which beat the consensus estimate that called for a 0.5% rise. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, the Value of Manufacturers’ New Orders for Durable Goods Industries actually fell by -16.9%, worse than the average decline for this time of year of -16.4%.
Orders of durable goods are running 4.1% above average y-t-d, buoyed, in part, by strength in computers and related products industries. Weakness in commercial aircraft has been weighing on the aggregate result, running 37.8% below average y-t-d. New Orders of motor vehicles showed surprising strength in the month, down -17.7% in the period. The average decline for this time of year is 29.2% as factory shutdowns in this summer month limit activity. The upbeat factory orders have yet to be met by strong consumer sales of vehicles, which are trending below average y-t-d. As a result, inventories are on the rise, climbing by the fastest pace through the first seven months of the year since 2014. The car industry is becoming vulnerable to price discounting through the 2H unless consumer sales can catch up with growing supplies.
Seasonally, durable goods orders rebound from the summer slump in August and September as the last push to complete products for shipping prior to the end of the year gets underway.
Creative Global Investments LLC (CGI) is a Multi asset Investment Strategy & Investment Research firm. Our focus is on providing a multi asset investment strategy research based on a proprietary dynamic research process.
It identifies major themes with implications for the global financial markets and provides projections of aggregate corporate profits, valuation, profit margin, size and style trends, and long-term targets of the major equity indices. We apply fundamental, empirical, and technical research to complement its thematic and macro-driven approach. Additionally, an analytical and quantitative approach to provide a macro-economic framework, and create forecasts and projections of economic growth, inflation, and short and long-term interest rates.
We identify the sectors and industry groups most impacted by future legislative and regulatory actions, within the context of the dynamic political environment. CGI offers insights on the changing policy landscape and the risks and opportunities, utilizing contacts within the public and private sectors to provide information, to identify investment opportunity.
We have developed and fine-tuned a dynamic 6-step combination investment strategy and research methodology and process, which is integral to all Creative Global Investments LLC client research by order of priority:
- Global Macro Analysis Overlay
- Chart Technical Analysis
- Seasonality Analysis
- Fundamental Analysis
- Investor Behavioral Analytics
- Geo-political risk assessment
We can also provide customized and specific research solutions and special projects, besides capital market and corporate advisory services for private equity firms.
Our research product and regular periodic publications for various asset classes include annual and quarterly Investment Outlook & Strategy reports, weekly Strategy reports per asset class, thematic reports, sentiment indicator, which helps in analyzing the trajectory of market, sector and industry group trends. CGI caters to global institutional fixed income and equity clients.
CGI LLC was founded in 2002, and is based in New York, New York, with additional offices in Luxemburg and Croatia.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.