2018 Q3 Global Investment Outlook & Strategy
The tailwinds for global GDP growth and demand for commodities, from expansionary US fiscal policy and domestic Chinese growth, limit the downside risk to emerging market equities from potential protectionist trade policies and a continuation of recent US$ strength. The consolidation phase in commodity prices in recent months has been constructive. We believe that the trade sanctions, and trade tariffs are not going to have a mitigating
impact on the developments for commodity prices, on the contrary, historically this has lifted commodity prices in the 9 subsequent months to tariff implementations.
With a republican leadership in the US for the next 3 years, we believe that the commodities run has just started. A recent endowment report underscored the fact that the impact of alternatives on portfolios has actually provided more upside potential and less downside risk. The world’s largest university endowments have been leading the demand for alternative investments. Accordingly, the combination of alternatives with additional exposure to traditional asset classes has been demonstrating that the impact on an institutional portfolio may be substantially greater than the sum of its parts.
We continue to see a strong case for 2018 for institutions needing to increase their allocations to almost all forms of alternatives to above 28% of portfolio assets, up from 23% in 2011 and 25.% in 2013.
This report includes:
- Q3 Tactical Asset Allocation
- Main Investment Conclusions
- Q3 Recommendations
- 2018/2019 Global GDP Forecasts
- Economic Outlooks by Region
- 2018/2019 Forecasts for Currencies, Commodities, Fixed Income
- 2018 Global Equities Price Targets
- 2018 Global Equities Q3 Outlook per Country
Creative Global Investments LLC (CGI) is a Multi asset Investment Strategy & Investment Research firm. Our focus is on providing a multi asset investment strategy research based on a proprietary dynamic research process.
It identifies major themes with implications for the global financial markets and provides projections of aggregate corporate profits, valuation, profit margin, size and style trends, and long-term targets of the major equity indices. We apply fundamental, empirical, and technical research to complement its thematic and macro-driven approach. Additionally, an analytical and quantitative approach to provide a macro-economic framework, and create forecasts and projections of economic growth, inflation, and short and long-term interest rates.
We identify the sectors and industry groups most impacted by future legislative and regulatory actions, within the context of the dynamic political environment. CGI offers insights on the changing policy landscape and the risks and opportunities, utilizing contacts within the public and private sectors to provide information, to identify investment opportunity.
We have developed and fine-tuned a dynamic 6-step combination investment strategy and research methodology and process, which is integral to all Creative Global Investments LLC client research by order of priority:
- Global Macro Analysis Overlay
- Chart Technical Analysis
- Seasonality Analysis
- Fundamental Analysis
- Investor Behavioral Analytics
- Geo-political risk assessment
We can also provide customized and specific research solutions and special projects, besides capital market and corporate advisory services for private equity firms.
Our research product and regular periodic publications for various asset classes include annual and quarterly Investment Outlook & Strategy reports, weekly Strategy reports per asset class, thematic reports, sentiment indicator, which helps in analyzing the trajectory of market, sector and industry group trends. CGI caters to global institutional fixed income and equity clients.
CGI LLC was founded in 2002, and is based in New York, New York, with additional offices in Luxemburg and Croatia.
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