Q2 2018 Global Investment Outlook & Strategy
The global economy is accelerating, however affected by geo-political distress, will decelerate in 2H 2018. The tailwinds for global GDP growth and demand for commodities, from expansionary US fiscal policy and domestic Chinese growth, limit the
downside risk to emerging market equities from potential protectionist trade policies and a continuation of recent US$ strength.Globally, equities are getting expensive, with US equities currently representing the highest valuation risk, in spite of tailwind benefits of asignificantly weaker USD, as US corporate earnings will be revised upwards. For Q2 2018, we see increased risks for investors in the global Auto’s, Financials, Banks, Consumer Goods.
+85% of the central banks are still supporting the global economies by additional monetary stimulus . Prouctivity growth to improve due to labor, financial and product markets reforms in place, particlarly Europe. Investment to pick up (modernization of capital stock).
Globally, long-term bonds still offer decent risk return opportunities in 1H 2018 of all asset classes,particularly from an DDM and total return aspectA Q2 correction is likely, mostly for developed markets, but also for select EM’s. We are expecting the US equities to underperform EAFE until May, into the period of seasonal weakness.
This report includes:
- Q2 Tactical Asset Allocation
- Main Investment Conclusions
- Q2 Recommendations
- 2018/2019 Global GDP Forecasts
- Economic Outlooks by Region
- 2018/2019 Forecasts for Currencies, Commodities, Fixed Income
- 2018 Global Equities Price Targets
- 2018 Global Equities Q2 Outlook per Country
Creative Global Investments LLC (CGI) is a Multi asset Investment Strategy & Investment Research firm. Our focus is on providing a multi asset investment strategy research based on a proprietary dynamic research process.
It identifies major themes with implications for the global financial markets and provides projections of aggregate corporate profits, valuation, profit margin, size and style trends, and long-term targets of the major equity indices. We apply fundamental, empirical, and technical research to complement its thematic and macro-driven approach. Additionally, an analytical and quantitative approach to provide a macro-economic framework, and create forecasts and projections of economic growth, inflation, and short and long-term interest rates.
We identify the sectors and industry groups most impacted by future legislative and regulatory actions, within the context of the dynamic political environment. CGI offers insights on the changing policy landscape and the risks and opportunities, utilizing contacts within the public and private sectors to provide information, to identify investment opportunity.
We have developed and fine-tuned a dynamic 6-step combination investment strategy and research methodology and process, which is integral to all Creative Global Investments LLC client research by order of priority:
- Global Macro Analysis Overlay
- Chart Technical Analysis
- Seasonality Analysis
- Fundamental Analysis
- Investor Behavioral Analytics
- Geo-political risk assessment
We can also provide customized and specific research solutions and special projects, besides capital market and corporate advisory services for private equity firms.
Our research product and regular periodic publications for various asset classes include annual and quarterly Investment Outlook & Strategy reports, weekly Strategy reports per asset class, thematic reports, sentiment indicator, which helps in analyzing the trajectory of market, sector and industry group trends. CGI caters to global institutional fixed income and equity clients.
CGI LLC was founded in 2002, and is based in New York, New York, with additional offices in Luxemburg and Croatia.
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