Heads-up for Q1 report 29 April

US Tariffs - Broad Tariffs are Highly Unlikely (7pgs)

Following a number of recent events, we discuss in this note what we think is the most likely outcome for the Pharma industry. We show that broad based tariffs on drugs are highly unlikely, that even if it were to happen, the impact of a 20% tariff is

US Tariffs - Transfer Pricing Could Negate Impact (6pgs)

We show that Big Pharma would not have to shift a single element of supply chain to the US and can mitigate most, if not all, of a 20% tariff on drugs, just by changing their transfer pricing strategy. In a scenario where the US corporation tax rate falls to 15% but tariffs are 20%, we show that Big Pharma profits would be unchanged, while the US government tax take would more than double. The losers would be low tax jurisdictions like Ireland, but they would get to keep their manufacturing base, at least in the medium-term. We also show that the impact of 20% tariffs with no tax mitigation wo...

Short term view - GBP-CHF : The major resistance is close.

The trend remains neutral. Prices will have to break above the peak at CHF 1.3104 for the trend to be positive again with an invalidation level below CHF 1.2740.Arguments :- The major resistance is close.- The moving average is capping prices.

Analyse court terme - GBP-CHF : La résistance majeure est proche.

La tendance est toujours neutre. Il faut franchir le sommet à 1,3104 CHF pour que la tendance devienne positive avec une invalidation sous 1,2740 CHF.Arguments :- La résistance majeure est proche.- La moyenne mobile sert de résistance.

Short term view - GBP-USD : Pull-back

The trend is momentarily interrupted by a consolidation on a shorter time horizon but prices remain below the invalidation level at $1.3210. It can resume at anytime towards the target at $1.2600.Arguments :- Prices are pulling back to the major resistance level (previously a support). The fall will resume afterwards.- The falling moving average confirms our opinion.