bpost - Adverse impact of compliance review is less than feared
• The initial outcome of the compliance review on the 'mispricing' of certain services to the Belgian government is less negative than anticipated: EUR 10m in 2023 (prev. guidance: EUR 25-50m) and the provision for the reclaim on previous years will be EUR 75m (we had estimated >EUR 150m).• Although this is an encouraging outcome and a first important step in cleaning up the house, not all issues are off the table yet (e.g. press tender). • We therefore stick to Hold, but we lift our TP from EUR 4.30 to EUR 5.20, based on our 2024 SOTP.Bpost is engaged in the provision of national and international mail and parcels services comprising the collection, transport, sorting and distribution of addressed and non-addressed mail, printed documents, newspapers and parcels. In addition, through its subsidiaries and business units, Co. sells a range of other products and services, including postal, parcels, banking and financial products, express delivery services, document management and related activities. Co. operates through two business units: the Mail & Retail Solutions and the Parcels & International.
We are an investment house with Belgian roots founded on more than 150 years of trust.
As a private company owned by long-term committed shareholders, we are independent. Naturally and structurally. Our experts have the knowledge to think and act without bias, and to make decisions that benefit our clients. Today and tomorrow.
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