Report
Andreas Souvleros, CFA
EUR 300.00 For Business Accounts Only

GREEK BANKS | Dividends Ahoy

Resilient NII despite funding challenges and likely interest rate cuts – Following a >50% surge in NII in 2023e (58% in the 9m period), investor focus has been clearly shifting to prospects for 2024-25e, especially in view of likely rate cuts. Despite the upcoming peak in NII (in Q4’23 or Q1’24), we project resilience in 2024, supported by credit growth (c4% p.a. in 2024-25e), the gradual benefit from deposit hedges (contributing c4% of NII by 2025e) as well as the lower-than-anticipated deposit betas and contraction of lending spreads, which are likely to push back a noteworthy contraction of NIMs into FY’25e. As interest rates decrease, we anticipate significant divergence among banks, with Alpha Bank poised to benefit the most due to its higher funding costs (yet still offering a lower sustainable RoTE of c10% in 2025e vs its Greek peers at c10%/12%). Inputting a DFR of 4% in 2023 falling to 2.5% by 2025e, a 14% deposit beta in 2023e (rising to 19% by 2024e) and 24% term deposits in the mix (rising to 40% by 2025), we estimate c5%-c10% annual NII declines in 2024-25e corresponding to a NIM of 2.6% and 2.3% respectively, still materially higher than that in 2022 (1.72%), with 2025e NII some 29% higher than 2022 levels.

Q3 results point to a RoTE of >15% in FY’23e – Greek banks reported another robust set of Q3 results, beating both our and consensus, mainly on higher NII, solid fee generation, contained costs and lower underlying CoR. At sector level, NII was up 56% y/y (NIM up by 109bps) and 7% q/q (NIM up by 16bps), with Piraeus leading the pack (NII up 9% q/q/ NIM up 15bps). This robust performance can be attributed to the sector's notably low deposit beta, hovering at c14% (vs 13% in Q2 and 10% in Q1), along with expanding bond portfolios (19% of assets/c+14% y/y), surplus liquidity held with central banks, and a gradual resurgence in credit expansion (c€2bn in 9M’23). Overall, in 9M the Greek banks enjoyed a RoTE of c16%, heading for a record year, with NBG and Eurobank presenting the highest annualized RoTE of c18% followed by Piraeus Bank (c16%) and Alpha Bank (c13%).

… driving further earning upgrades to our numbers; RoTEs 11-15% in 2024e – We have raised our 2023-25e adj. net income (16%/11%/4%) to reflect improved guidance on NII and Q3 trends. Additionally, we still expect solid fee generation (2023-25e CAGR of c5%), buoyed by strong macro and robust asset management activities, with OpEx remaining under control (efficiency ratios in the 35-38% range). Furthermore, CoR ought to gradually decline (to 0.61% by 2025e), reflecting improvements in asset quality. Overall, we argue Greek banks are set to navigate rate reductions effectively, being primed for sustainable RoTE >10-11% post-2025e (and 11-15% in 2024e). This, coupled with robust capital generation (>250bps by 2025e) will enable the resumption of dividends, with payouts at 17-27% over 2023-25e.

Valuation: raising PTs, Piraeus staying top pick – GR banks returned >60% in 2023, partly propelled by earnings upgrades (12m fwd EPS +58%) and partly by re-rating. With the sector still at c5x 2024e PE and c0.6x 2024e P/TBV, there is further upside in our view, especially as current prices still incorporate CoE in the mid-teens failing to reflect the resilience of revenues, significant capital optionality and improved asset quality. With these in mind, we feel the combination of still conservative estimates (2025e RoTE c11%), attractive valuations, and upcoming catalysts (i.e. reinstatement of dividends, HFSF’s full divestment, GGB spreads contraction) make up a compelling case. As such, we reiterate our “Buy” for all banks on higher PTs (estimate upgrades and lower CoE), with Piraeus remaining our top pick given the solid execution and an attractive risk/return profile.
Underlyings
Alpha Bank AE

Alpha Bank is a banking and financial services group which is based in Greece. Co. is engaged in offering a range of services including retail, SME and corporate banking, credit cards, asset management, investment banking, private banking, brokerage, leasing and factoring. Co. is also active in international financial market, with a presence in Cyprus, Romania, London, Serbia, Albania, Jersey (Channel Islands), Bulgaria, former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and New York. Co. maintains a focus on retail banking in Greece and particularly loans to individuals and small business loans, and overall expansion in Southeastern Europe. Co.'s activities are divided into retail and wholesale banking.

Eurobank Ergasias Services & Holdings SA

Eurobank Ergasias and its subsidiaries are organized in the following reportable segments: Retail. which incorporates customer current accounts, savings, deposits and investment savings products, credit and debit cards, consumer loans, small business banking and mortgages; Corporate, which incorporates direct debit facilities, current accounts, deposits, overdrafts, loan and other credit facilities, foreign currency and derivative products; Wealth Management, which incorporates private banking services; Global and Capital Markets, which incorporates investment banking services; and International, which incorporates operations in Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Cyprus, Ukraine and Luxembourg.

National Bank of Greece S.A.

National Bank of Greece is a financial institution based in Greece. Co. maintains operations in the retail banking sector, with 509 branches and one premium banking branch, and 1,448 ATMs. Co. offers its customers a range of integrated financial services, including: corporate and investment banking; retail banking (including mortgage lending); leasing and factoring; stock brokerage and asset management; insurance; and real estate and consulting services. Co. is also involved in other businesses, including hotel and property management. Co. operates in Greece, U.K., South Eastern Europe which includes Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, Serbia, as well as, in Cyprus, Malta, Egypt and South Africa.

Piraeus Financial Holdings S.A.

Piraeus Bank is a banking institute. Co. and its subsidiaries provide services in the Southeastern Europe, Egypt, as well as Western European markets. Co. and its subsidiaries operate in four main business segments: Retail Banking, which includes the retail banking facilities; Corporate Banking, which includes facilities related to corporate banking; Investment Banking, which includes activities related to investment banking facilities of Co. and its subsidiaries, including investment and advisory services, underwriting services and public listings, and stock exchange services; and Asset Management and Treasury, which includes asset management facilities for clients.

Provider
Eurobank Equities
Eurobank Equities

Eurobank Equities is a Greek-based firm offering research, sales and trading services to institutional, corporate and private clients. The company is wholly owned by Eurobank, one of the 4 systemic banks in Greece.

Research is the backbone of Eurobank Equities' platform, with a team of 4 professionals committed to generating actionable investment ideas by providing timely research products. We are committed to offering value-added services to clients by filtering market noise and providing insights on the multiple sectors that we cover. Our universe includes 26 - large, medium and small cap - companies whose market capitalization amounts to 80-85% of the total market capitalization of the Athens Stock Exchange. Our research team also maintains the capacity to generate ad-hoc research for micro-cap listed companies.

Our team has consistently gained recognition among institutional investors for its quality research, having ranked No. 1 team in Greece at the Extel Surveys of 2013-2016 and 2018. We have also been named Leading Brokerage Firm in Greece over 2014-2016 and in 2018.

Analysts
Andreas Souvleros, CFA

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