reports
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: all geographies in the green in Ap...
EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
KRU KRUK S.A.
MOL MOL NYRT
EBS ERSTE GROUP BANK AG
CEZ CEZ AS
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
ALK ALKALOID AD SKOPJE
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
LAMDA LAMDA DEVELOPMENT S.A.
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
GTC GLOBE TRADE CENTRE S.A.
2310 SAHARA INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
APR AUTO PARTNER SA
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
THYAO TURK HAVA YOLLARI A.O.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
EUR EUROCASH S.A.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
MBR MO-BRUK S.A.
GPW WARSAW STOCK EXCHANGE
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
OTOEL AUTOHELLAS S.A.
VGO VIGO SYSTEM SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
SNP PETROM S.A.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
M MED LIFE
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
SOKM SOK MARKETLER TICARET AS
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
KSPI KASPI KZ
INPST INPOST S.A.
HUGE HUUUGE
PCO PEPCO GROUP NV
GPP KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
KLKIM GRUPA PRACUJ DA
ADNOCDRILL KALEKIM KIMYEVI MADDELER SANAYI VE TICARET AS
AROBS ADNOC DRILLING CO
2381 AROBS TRANSILVANIA SOFTWARE SA
9526 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
SHO JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
BOROUGE SHOPER SA
AIRA BOROUGE
GEV AIR ASTANA JSC
GEVORKYAN A.S.
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Valuation remains out of sync with sustainable RoTEs
March underperformance sparked repositioning opportunity; risk-reward compelling – Greek bank shares had a strong start to 2024 (until Feb) closing the valuation gap vs EU periphery peers buoyed by the stellar 2023 profits (adj. RoTE of c16%), successful B/S de-risking (NPE ratio c4%) and improved market liquidity post HFSF’s placements. However, in March they suffered a bout of underperformance (>15%), with the relative 2024e P/TBV discount widening to c20% (and the P/E discount even higher) on...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Valuation remains out of sync with sustainable RoTEs
March underperformance sparked repositioning opportunity; risk-reward compelling – Greek bank shares had a strong start to 2024 (until Feb) closing the valuation gap vs EU periphery peers buoyed by the stellar 2023 profits (adj. RoTE of c16%), successful B/S de-risking (NPE ratio c4%) and improved market liquidity post HFSF’s placements. However, in March they suffered a bout of underperformance (>15%), with the relative 2024e P/TBV discount widening to c20% (and the P/E discount even higher) on...
Alpha Services and Holdings S.A: 1 director
A director at Alpha Services and Holdings S.A sold 48,170 shares at 1.573EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 56/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last tw...
- Philip Wong
Alpha IVF Group (ALPHA MK) - 3QFY24: Expected Sequential Recovery As E...
3QFY24: Expected Sequential Recovery As Earnings Meet Expectations Performance improved sequentially due to fewer doctors being on long leave. It is even more impressive given that the quarter is a seasonal low. Ultimately, earnings are within our expectations. The quarters ahead should grow from strength to strength, starting with Alhaya. We like Alpha IVF for its industry-leading success rates, growth off a low base, and superior margins relative to its peers. Maintain BUY. Target price: RM0.4...
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Ceilica Su Rui
- Damon Shen
- Jieqi Liu
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Philip Wong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tham Mun Hon
Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, April 17, 2024
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity: 1Q24 surprises with 5.3% yoy growth. Sector Hong Kong Property: Expect modest pull-back of primary sales in 2Q24; we prefer retail landlords over developers. Top pick: Wharf REIC. INDONESIA Sector Consumer: Cocoa price spikes accompanied by increases in sugar and coffee prices. MALAYSIA Initiate Coverage Sime Darby (SIME MK/BUY/RM2.76/Target: RM3.13): A conglomerate giant speeding to the top. Results Alpha IVF (ALPHA MK/BUY/RM0.34/Target: RM0.40): 3QF...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: ALPHA GA; EUROB GA; ETE GA; TPEIR GA; CPS PW; PKN PW; ING ...
HEADLINES: • Greek banks: life after the windfall (Alpha, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus – transfer of coverage) • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Orlen: announces PLN 1.6bn of probable trading losses NEGATIVE • ING BSK: AGM approves PLN 33.35 DPS NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: partners with Mytilineos for 2GW solar portfolio NEUTRAL • InPost: PPF realises option to buy 10% stake • ONE United Properties: founders and others selling up to 9.5% in ABB • PKO BP: ...
EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
PKN POLSKI KONCERN NAFTOWY ORLEN S.A.
TPEIR PIRAEUS BANK SA
ALPHA ALPHA BANK AE
PPC PUBLIC POWER CORPORATION S.A.
CPS CYFROWY POLSAT SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
MONET MONETA MONEY BANK AS
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
INPST INPOST S.A.
ONE ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
- Can Demir
- Miguel Dias
Greek Banks: life after the windfall (Alpha, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus...
We are revisiting and transferring coverage of the Greek banks. We estimate their earnings to plateau, and their ROTEs to normalise in 2024-26E, as the market expects short-term Euribor rates to decline. Capital and liquidity gain importance as there is less easy money. The emphasis will be on optimising balance sheets, returning capital, and minimising funding costs relative to Euribor. We like National Bank of Greece (NBG; BUY) for its profitability, simplicity, and potential to return capital...
- Philip Wong
Alpha IVF Group (ALPHA MK) - Fertilising Alpha Growth
Fertilising Alpha Growth A distinguished fertility group, Alpha IVF is poised to extend its established footprint into neighbouring countries. Strategic expansion into underserved markets and segments, alongside favourable industry trends, fuels our projected three-year earnings growth at an impressive three-year CAGR of 19.0% (FY23-36). Its margins surpass those of its peers, showcasing Alpha IVF’s leading capabilities and execution. Initiate coverage with BUY and target price of RM0.40.
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Jonathan Koh
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Philip Wong
- Sunny Chen
Regional Morning Notes - Tuesday, April 09, 2024
GREATER CHINA Update Sino Biopharmaceutical (1177 HK/BUY/HK$2.83/Target: HK$3.80): Enters into strategic partnership with Boehringer Ingelheim. MALAYSIA Initiate Coverage Alpha IVF (ALPHA MK/BUY/RM0.33/Target: RM0.40): Initiate coverage on Alpha IVF with a BUY call. Alpha IVF offers industry-leading success rates, which are expected to be replicated across its exciting regional expansion. SINGAPORE Sector Banking: Higher for slightly longer. THAILAND Update CP ALL (CPALL TB/BUY/Bt56.00/Target...
- Philip Wong
Alpha IVF Group (ALPHA MK) - Fertilising Alpha Growth
Fertilising Alpha Growth A distinguished fertility group, Alpha IVF is poised to extend its established footprint into neighbouring countries. Strategic expansion into underserved markets and segments, alongside favourable industry trends, fuels our projected three-year earnings growth at an impressive three-year CAGR of 19.0% (FY23-36F). Its margins surpass those of its peers, showcasing Alpha IVF’s leading capabilities and execution. Initiate coverage with BUY and target price of RM0.40.
- Research Team
The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: mixed market performances in March
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
EUROB EUROBANK ERGASIAS SERVICES & HOLDINGS SA
PEO BANK POLSKA KASA OPIEKI SA
JMT JERONIMO MARTINS SGPS S.A.
OPAP GREEK ORGANISATION OF FOOTBALL PROGNOSTICS SA
KRU KRUK S.A.
EXAE HELLENIC EXCHANGES SA
MOL MOL NYRT
CEZ CEZ AS
ACP ASSECO POLAND SA
HTO HELLENIC TELECOMMUNICATIONS ORGANIZATION SA
CDR CD PROJEKT S.A.
OMV OMV AG
PKO PKO BANK POLSKI S.A.
ALK ALKALOID AD SKOPJE
BHW BANK HANDLOWY W WARSZAWIE S.A.
PZU POWSZECHNY ZAKLAD UBEZPIECZEN SPOLKA AKCYJNA
VER VERBUND AG CLASS A
SPL SANTANDER BANK POLSKA SA
MIL BANK MILLENNIUM SA
BSK ING BANK SLASKI S.A.
BDX BUDIMEX S.A.
TPS ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
CAI CA IMMOBILIEN ANLAGEN AG
SAR GR. SARANTIS S.A.
LPP LPP S.A.
AKCNS AKCANSA CIMENTO
ASELS ASELSAN ELEKTRONIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S. CLASS B
BRISA BRISA-BRIDGESTONE SABANCI LASTIK SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CIMSA CIMENTO SANYAI VE TICARET A.S.
LOGO LOGO YAZILIM SANAYI VE TICARET A.S.
CCC CCC SA
CCOLA COCA-COLA ICECEK A.S.
2310 SAHARA INTERNATIONAL PETROCHEMICAL COMPANY
DOM DOM DEVELOPMENT SA
AEGN AEGEAN AIRLINES SA
ENA ENEA S.A.
BFT BENEFIT SYSTEMS S.A. ALLOTMENT
MGROS MIGROS TICARET A.S
PGE PGE POLSKA GRUPA ENERGETYCZNA S.A.
TKNSA TEKNOSA IC VE DIS TICARET AS
PGSUS.E PEGASUS HAVA TASIMACILIGI AS
LVC LIVECHAT SOFTWARE SA
TBCB TBC BANK JOINT STOCK CO
OTP OTP BANK NYRT
CAR INTER CARS S.A.
ARCLK ARCELIK A.S.
FROTO FORD OTOMOTIV SANAYI A.S.
OTKAR OTOKAR OTOMOTIV VE SAVUNMA SANAYI A.S.
TUPRS TURKIYE PETROL RAFINERILERI A.S.
ECH ECHO INVESTMENT
11B 11 BIT STUDIOS S.A.
TPE TAURON POLSKA ENERGIA S.A.
ALR ALIOR BANK SA
WPL WIRTUALNA POLSKA HOLDING SA
BRD BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE
TLV BANCA TRANSILVANIA S.A.
ETEL TELECOM EGYPT
SNG SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE GAZE NATURALE ROMGAZ SA
H4L1 HALYK SAVINGS BANK OF KAZAKHSTAN GDR
SNP PETROM S.A.
TOFAS TOFAS TURK OTOMOBIL FABRIKASI A.S.
DIGI DIGI COMMUNICATIONS NV
DNP DINO POLSKA S.A.
NBGGY NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE S.A. ADS
SNN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA NUCLEARELECTRICA SA
TEL C.N.T.E.E. TRANSELECTRICA
ELSA SOCIETATEA ENERGETICA ELECTRICA
FP. FONDUL PROPRIETATEA S.A. GDR (REG S)
GEB BANK OF GEORGIA
TGN SOCIETATEA NATIONALA DE TRANSPORT GAZE NATURALE TRANSGAZ S.A.
RICHT RICHTER
ALPHA ALPHA BANK
SFG SPHERA FRANCHISE GROUP SA
ADNOCDIST ADNOC DISTRIBUTION PJSC
KAP NATIONAL ATOMIC COMPANY KAZATOMPROM
TEN TEN SQUARE GAMES
ALG ALLEGRO.EU SA
CZG CESKA ZBROJOVKA GROUP
INPST INPOST S.A.
PCF PCF GROUP SA
HUGE HUUUGE
WINE PURCARI WINERIES PCL
CTPNV KAZMUNAYGAS NC JSC
ONE CTP NV
GPP ONE UNITED PROPERTIES SA
AROBS GRUPA PRACUJ DA
2381 AROBS TRANSILVANIA SOFTWARE SA
9526 ARABIAN DRILLING CO.
4071 JAHEZ INTERNATIONAL CO
H2O ARABIAN CONTRACTING SERVICES CO
7203 HIDROELECTRICA S.A.
AQ ELM CO
AIRA AQUILA PART PROD COM
AIR ASTANA JSC
- Pedro Fonseca
Alpha Bank - Full steam ahead
Alpha Bank (Alpha) reported €611m in net profit, a 66% jump from FY22, as the bank benefited from an elevated interest rate environment with little impact from deposit migration and strong cost control. Alpha delivered a normalised return on tangible equity (RoTE) of 12.9% in FY23, beating its own upgraded target of >11.5%. The increased profitability coupled with a robust capital position (fully loaded common equity tier 1 (FL CET1) of 14.3%) have enabled a proposed dividend of €0.05 a share, s...
Piraeus Financial Holdings S.A.: 2 directors
Two Directors at Piraeus Financial Holdings S.A. sold 11,000 shares at between 3.958EUR and 3.968EUR. The significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's direc...
- Research Team
WOOD Daily: OTP HB; ALPHA GA; EUROB GA; FP RO; ARCLK TI; DAT PW; KMGZ ...
HEADLINES: • OTP Bank: 4Q23 profits largely in line; 2024E guidance assumes continuation of profits, but ROE is likely start to normalise • Alpha Bank: 4Q23 highlights • Eurobank: 4Q23 highlights • Fondul Proprietatea: Court of Appeal admits Fund’s request to annul share capital increase decision at Bucharest Airports POSITIVE • Arcelik: CMA approves Arcelik-Whirlpool Deal POSITIVE • DataWalk: key takeaways from the preliminary 4Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • KazMunayGas: 4Q23E results preview ...
- MarketLine Department
Piraeus Bank S.A. - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Allia...
Summary Marketline's Piraeus Bank S.A. Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments report includes business description, detailed reports on mergers and acquisitions (M&A), divestments, capital raisings, venture capital investments, ownership and partnership transactions undertaken by Piraeus Bank S.A. - Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances since January2007. Marketline's Company Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A), Partnerships & Alliances and Investments...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – 2024 outlook | Junk no more
2023: Reclaiming investor spotlight – Greek equities had another year of stellar performance, with the ASE index popping >40%, eclipsing the Stoxx 600 by >25ppts. Strong fundamentals (mid-teens EBITDA growth for non-financials, >50% NII growth for banks) were coupled with falling risk premia thanks to crystallized domestic political stability and expectations for Greece’s return to investment grade (IG), further propelled by the generic risk-on rally in Q4 and low positioning. Financials (+66%) ...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
- Christiana Armpounioti
- Marios Bourazanis
- Natalia Svyriadi
- Nikos Athanasoulias CFA
- Stamatios Draziotis CFA
Greek Equity Strategy – 2024 outlook | Junk no more
2023: Reclaiming investor spotlight – Greek equities had another year of stellar performance, with the ASE index popping >40%, eclipsing the Stoxx 600 by >25ppts. Strong fundamentals (mid-teens EBITDA growth for non-financials, >50% NII growth for banks) were coupled with falling risk premia thanks to crystallized domestic political stability and expectations for Greece’s return to investment grade (IG), further propelled by the generic risk-on rally in Q4 and low positioning. Financials (+66%) ...
- Andreas Souvleros
- CFA
GREEK BANKS | Dividends Ahoy
Resilient NII despite funding challenges and likely interest rate cuts – Following a >50% surge in NII in 2023e (58% in the 9m period), investor focus has been clearly shifting to prospects for 2024-25e, especially in view of likely rate cuts. Despite the upcoming peak in NII (in Q4’23 or Q1’24), we project resilience in 2024, supported by credit growth (c4% p.a. in 2024-25e), the gradual benefit from deposit hedges (contributing c4% of NII by 2025e) as well as the lower-than-anticipated deposit...
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