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Research Report (Initial Coverage english - Aspermont Ltd. - 05.03.26

From Specialist Media to Data-Driven Intelligence Platform: A Multi-Year Growth and Margin Expansion Story

Aspermont Ltd. has completed a multi-year transformation from a traditional B2B publisher into a subscription-led data and intelligence platform focused on the global resources sector. This transition has materially improved revenue quality and visibility, with the business now anchored around recurring subscriptions, a large proprietary content archive, and an expanding portfolio of higher-value intelligence products targeted at enterprise decision-makers.

In FY2025, revenue declined to AUD 15.41m from AUD 17.49m in FY2024, reflecting deliberate portfolio rationalisation and the exit from lower-quality activities rather than structural weakness in the core subscription base. EBITDA remained negative at approximately AUD -1.06m (FY24: AUD -1.20m), broadly stable year on year, while the net loss after tax widened modestly to AUD -2.58m (FY24: AUD -2.44m). FY2025 reflects a significant phase of investment in platform, data structuring, and commercial capability. While elements of upfront build-out moderate over time, management intends to continue investing in data and intelligence capabilities over the coming years to broaden product depth and market reach. As such, profitability improvement is expected to be gradual rather than driven by a sharp reduction in operating expenditure.

The FY2026–FY2028 outlook reflects progressive monetisation alongside continued operating investment in data and intelligence capabilities. Margin expansion is expected to be gradual as revenue growth increasingly absorbs sustained OPEX deployment. Revenue is forecast to grow from AUD 16.90m in FY2026 to AUD 18.90m in FY2027 and AUD 21.30m in FY2028. Growth is expected to be driven by a normalisation in subscription momentum as recent commercial initiatives translate into improved acquisition and continue ARPU (Average Revenue per User) expansion within existing corporate accounts, particularly through seat expansion and broader product adoption. In parallel, data and intelligence revenues, led by Mining IQ, are expected to transition from early validation to more repeatable enterprise deployments, supporting higher contract values, longer customer lifecycles, and improved revenue durability. Events and marketing services are expected to contribute more consistently, increasingly acting as engagement and cross-sell enablers rather than standalone growth drivers.

As revenue scales, operating leverage becomes progressively visible across the P&L, albeit alongside continued investment in data and intelligence capabilities. EBITDA is forecast to turn modestly positive at approximately AUD 0.15m in FY2026, rising to AUD 1.67m in FY2027 and AUD 2.93m in FY2028, reflecting gradual margin expansion driven by revenue growth rather than cost contraction. Net results follow a similar trajectory, with FY2026 remaining loss-making at AUD -0.95m before turning positive in FY2027 at AUD 0.53m and increasing to AUD 1.73m in FY2028.

We re-initiate coverage with a Buy rating. Based on the progressive improvement in EBITDA and the medium-term scalability of the data and intelligence platform, we derive a target price of AUD 5.00 per share (EUR 3.03), implying meaningful upside as Aspermont transitions into a sustainable, profitable growth phase.