Aedifica Solid 3Q25 results, all eyes on the BCA

Aedifica reports EPRA earnings 1.3% ahead of our expectations and increases its EPRA EPS guidance by 1.8% to EUR 5.10 per share (excl. transaction costs merger). The key driver behind the outperformance is the rental income. YTD Aedifica has divested EUR 125.0m assets (mainly exit from Sweden). It has replenished the pipeline with EUR 163.0m investments: EUR 105m developments + EUR 58m acquisitions. The pipeline is committed at 6.5% YoC. Q3 had the biggest fair value uplift to date (0.35% and 0.82% YTD) but it remains minor. Aedifica expects BCA approval in January based on the proposition to sell EUR 300.0m Belgian assets. We believe there will be a big haircut on the sale value as there are not many buyers for healthcare assets in Belgium, especially in Brussels where the combination will have approx. 44% of the private beds. The BE assets are valued at approx. 5.8% net yield which gives some headroom to reinvest at 6.5% before it hurts EPRA EPS. Hold reiterated at EUR 70.0 TP.