Akzo Nobel Uninspiring 4Q & FY26 outlook, while Axalta merger can become trigger
Akzo's 4Q25 results were roughly in line with previous quarters, with weak volumes and negative FX leading to a slight decline in adjusted EBITDA, despite sizeable efficiency improvement initiatives. 2026 is expected to bring more of the same, with Akzo forecasting flat volumes and an FY26 adjusted EBITDA that is guided to be up at least 2% (or at least 7% excluding negative FX and scope effects). With current efficiency improvement initiatives expected to have mostly run their course in 2027, the planned Axalta merger comes at a good time, offering sizeable synergies potential. As the closing of the merger is only expected in late 2026 or early 2027 and taking into account the low structural growth and volatile track record, we maintain a conservative view for now. We reiterate our Hold rating with a target price that is reduced from € 65 to € 63.Akzo Nobel N.V. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the production and marketing of paints, coatings and specialty chemicals. Co. has three segments: Decorative Paints, which supplies products for the professional and do-it-yourself markets, including paints, lacquers and varnishes, as well as products for surface preparation; Performance Coatings, which is divided into the following businesses: Automotive and Aerospace Coatings, Industrial Coatings, Marine and Protective Coatings, and Powder Coatings; and Specialty Chemicals, which are used in products such as ice cream, soups, disinfectants, plastics, soaps, detergents, cosmetics, paper and asphalt.
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