Alfen Between a rock and a hard place
In this note, we analyse Alfen's recent financial performance and future outlook. Despite being undervalued based on fundamentals, Alfen faces significant challenges. The company must navigate a delicate balance: they can't afford to set overly optimistic targets and risk missing them, but setting targets too low could undermine investor confidence. We lower our revenue and margin estimates based on the current market conditions. Consequently, our DCF based target price decreases from € 24 to € 20 per share. We maintain our Accumulate rating, as we do not expect a revaluation in 1H25. It will take time to unlock the fundamental value due to uncertainties and lack of trust.Alfen NV (Alfen) is a company based in the Netherlands, engaged in the design, development and production of electric grid equipment. The Company is active in three business lines: Smart Grids, which supplies standardized electricity grid connection systems, secondary transformer substations, local power grids, devices for grid automation, as well as software and back-end systems for remote management and grid control; Energy Storage, responsible for development and installation of modular energy storage systems under the brand TheBattery, which are used by utilities, grid operators, energy traders and industrial companies, among others, and Electric Vehicle (EV) Charging, which supplies EV charge points in a variety of capacities and functionalities for use at home, work and in public areas. In addition, Alfen offers service, management and maintenance activities, including remote support and monitoring, as well as an in-house technological know-how center.
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