Alfen Confidence break-down needs time to repair
In this note we zoom in on last week's profit warning, the financing situation and the site visit to Alfen. In the short term Alfen needs to get a waiver for their RCF, as long as that hasn't materialised, we expect limited upside. Additionally, we lower our estimates, due to the slowdown and increased costs. The market is now focussed on the short term issues and has given up on the long term energy transition potential. We adjust our valuation method to include both horizons : a multiple approach with a weight of 50% to reflect the short term uncertainty with a fair value of € 18.3 per share and a 50% weight on our DCF based valuation with a fair value of € 30 per share. This results in our new target price of € 24 per share. We put Alfen on Accumulate. We had a Buy rating and € 52 target before we put the shares Under Review.Alfen NV (Alfen) is a company based in the Netherlands, engaged in the design, development and production of electric grid equipment. The Company is active in three business lines: Smart Grids, which supplies standardized electricity grid connection systems, secondary transformer substations, local power grids, devices for grid automation, as well as software and back-end systems for remote management and grid control; Energy Storage, responsible for development and installation of modular energy storage systems under the brand TheBattery, which are used by utilities, grid operators, energy traders and industrial companies, among others, and Electric Vehicle (EV) Charging, which supplies EV charge points in a variety of capacities and functionalities for use at home, work and in public areas. In addition, Alfen offers service, management and maintenance activities, including remote support and monitoring, as well as an in-house technological know-how center.
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