Atenor Unexpected capital raise hurts the shareholder confidence

We update our model after the annual results and the EUR 45.3m capital increase announced on Sunday. The capital increase and its timing was a surprise as the guidance on debt reduction of EUR 150.0m is realised and the adjusted operational performance in line with our estimates. The reason for the capital increase is linked to the EUR 65.0 bond repayments coming up in FY25 and to get more flexibility at the deal table. Atenor did not announce any new project sales since October (Lakeside, Warsaw). Also higher fair value corrections over 2H24 pushed the company to execute another dilutive capital increase. Given our lower estimates for FY25 and the dilutive raise, we cut our TP from EUR 5.9 to EUR 3.2. The equity raise is an extra cushion for bond holders and other creditors, but hurts the confidence of the shareholders. We don't see an immediate turnaround of the equity story. Therefore we decrease our rating from Accumulate to Hold. CMD on Wednesday.