Basic-Fit Model update: Additional guidance to lower expectations

We update our model after the announcement of the 1H23 results yesterday. Basic-Fit has given guidance on average fitness revenue per member of at least EUR 23.5 and a total number of memberships of at least 3.8m by YE23. There was an additional positive update on energy costs per club of EUR 35k in FY24-25.
We believe the guidance is too conversative but do update our model to incorporate the cautiousness. A lower yield per member as the result of discounts will lead to a membership base above 3.8m and vice versa.
The premium membership uptake at 55% pushes the average yield per member upwards but leads to lower membership growth as you can take along a partner to the gym. In our model we expect this trend to continue and set the average members/immature club lower than the pre-covid level. Additionally, the macro-economic outlook and its impact on consumer spending could result in a slower paced membership growth. On the upside, there are 65 clubs in Germany under contract to be opened over the next 18 months. We believe further momentum in Germany could be a trigger for the stock after earlier delays.
The model update lowers our TP from EUR 40.0 to EUR 39.0. We repeat our ACCUMULATE rating given the 20.1% upside from yesterday's closing.