bpost Amazon out, bol.com in: new customers will boost parcels in 2023
Following the recently published results that came in better than expected, we have revisited our FY22 estimates to the upside. Looking further into 2023, we gained confidence that results will likely not be as bad as the share price is reflecting, with strong price increases coming up in Belgium to compensate for increased labour costs. Secondly, bpost has been very successful in acquiring new customers within parcels Belgium and E-logistics Eurasia. This will boost parcels volumes in Belgium by double digits next year, hereby offsetting the negative Amazon insourcing impact. Although bpost is facing some macro headwinds and uncertainty regarding the press concession, we think today's share price suggests that bpost is a company in distress. In reality, bpost has a healthy balance sheet, attractive FCF yield, war chest for M&A and well covered dividend yield of 7%. We stick to our Buy rating but slightly lower our TP from € 8.6 to € 7.4 ps.Bpost is engaged in the provision of national and international mail and parcels services comprising the collection, transport, sorting and distribution of addressed and non-addressed mail, printed documents, newspapers and parcels. In addition, through its subsidiaries and business units, Co. sells a range of other products and services, including postal, parcels, banking and financial products, express delivery services, document management and related activities. Co. operates through two business units: the Mail & Retail Solutions and the Parcels & International.
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