bpost Pandora's box has been opened
Bpost is facing a tough time after the compliance review revealed that bpost charged excess margins on services provided to the Belgian state. This will have a financial impact of 25-50m in 2023. However, we expect the impact will last beyond 2023, while reimbursements and fines are also likely. In this note, we come up with three financial scenarios. On the one hand, we look at potential reimbursements for excess profits charged in the past and the risk of a fine related to the press concession. Secondly, we calculated the future EBIT loss from lower press remunerations and the removal of excess margins. Including these effects into our valuation, we lower our TP from € 7.4 to € 4.0 ps and change our rating from Buy to Reduce.Bpost is engaged in the provision of national and international mail and parcels services comprising the collection, transport, sorting and distribution of addressed and non-addressed mail, printed documents, newspapers and parcels. In addition, through its subsidiaries and business units, Co. sells a range of other products and services, including postal, parcels, banking and financial products, express delivery services, document management and related activities. Co. operates through two business units: the Mail & Retail Solutions and the Parcels & International.
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