Cofinimmo FY25 results above expectations, guidance below
Cofinimmo reports recurring EPRA EPS +1,1% above our estimates and 4,0% above its guidance. The earnings beat is driven by higher like-for-like rental income at +2,9%. The EPRA EPS outlook of FY26 is below our estimates at € 6,35 vs € 6,39 KBCSe. The guided debt ratio at YE26 is 340 bps higher than our expectations at 44,0% due to only € 110,0m guided asset disposals and higher than expected investments at € 310,0m which will mainly impact FY27/28 rental income. In the medium term, the focus should be on refinancings. The average debt maturity is low at 3x which is related to the ongoing exchange offer and the CoD at 1,5% sits 190 bps below its marginal CoD. To keep the EPRA EPS at least flat by FY28, new investments are needed which partly explains the newly guided 44,0% debt ratio. Additionally, in the newly combined entity asset disposals will accelerate so new investments are needed to fill the gaps. Earlier this week, we increased our TP on both Aedifica and Cofinimmo to reflect a lower risk premium as the Armonea case is now settled. We also reduced our rating from Buy to Accumulate as both companies sit close to their fair value but the deal momentum will likely continue.Cofinimmo is a fixed capital real estate investment trust. Co. specializes in rental property. Its core investment segments are office property and nursing and care institutions. The portfolio also includes a Distribution property networks segment. Most of Co.'s assets are in Belgium. The foreign part consists of nursing homes/ clinics and the MAAF agencies network in France and the Pubstone portfolio in the Netherlands. Co.'s operations are organized into four segments: Offices, Nursing homes/Clinics, Distribution property networks, and Public-Private Partnerships.
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