Report
CTP FIRST REACTION: 1Q23, no sign of weakness yet, but stakes are high
Rental income grew 24.1% to 136m and benefited from 7.8% lfl growth. That is impressive as CTP expects to have only 70% indexed contracts by FY23 end. The EPRA EPS of 0.18 is above our 1H23 run rate of 0.35 and well on track for their 0.72 FY23 guidance. The LTV rose slightly to 45.9% from 45.4 at FY22 end. The occupancy on standing assets was flat at 94%. On the pipeline, the occupancy is reported excluding Poland at 49%, but the company believes they can increase that to 80% at delivery. That is the Achilles heel of CTP. CTP increased its development pipeline to a record breaking GLA of 1.8m sqm, more than double the pipeline at FY21. As long as it can realise its industry leading yield on cost > 10%, its FV increases faster than the yield expansion impact on its standing assets and additional debt. Another condition is that occupancy at completion has to increase to 80% and ERV's have to hold up. We expect LTV to increase to around 49% vs. company guidance of 45%, but remain at a manageable level. We maintain our target of a 14.7 target, based on a 6.25% WACC. NTA stood at 14.44.
Underlying
CTP NV
Provider
KBC Securities
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Wim Lewi
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