Elia Group Elia raises Capex outlook in 3Q23 trading statement
In its 3Q23 update, Elia raised FY23 ROE to upper end of the 6-7% range. The shock announcement is the Capex outlook that increased from 15.9bn over 2023-27 to 30.1bn over 24-28. Elia refers to the federal development plans of BE and GE and some cost inflation (+30-40%). For BE the new guidance points to 3.0bn Capex in FY28. That is in line with our estimates over 2024-27 as CREG approved 6.4bn. GE will accelerate significantly vs. our estimates over 2024-27. Elia based its GE estimates on the federal development plan, that applies a net zero by 2045 instead of 2050. GE total capex over next 10yr is estimated at 200bn for the 4 transmission companies. Elia recalculates this in its Capex outlook as the draft becomes more concrete. In GE the acceleration starts already from FY24. In total, we estimate that approx. 8bn of extra Capex is added over FY24-27 in order to come to 20.7bn by FY28. That will have a significant impact on our estimates and capital needs over the period. We will get more details about the Capex and regulator final approvals of the ROE on the CMD of 8/12/23.Elia System Operator develops, operates and maintains very-high-voltage (380 kV, 220 kV and 150 kV) and high-voltage (70 kV, 36 kV and 30 kV) networks, providing its customers with consultancy and engineering services. Whether in Belgium, Germany or elsewhere in Europe or the U.S., Co. ensures that electricity flows reliably from energy producers to distributors and large corporate customers. Co.'s main activities include transmission operator, system operator and market facilitator, developing and maintaining grid infrastructure, connecting electrical installations to grids, providing transparent access to grids, while taking initiatives to improve electricity market operations.
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