Report
Guy Sips

GREENYARD - Becoming a plant-based powerhouse GREEN BB

We updated our model post Greenyard’s Capital Market Days. Greenyard has made it a clear goal to become a plant-based powerhouse and deliver on a set of steep ambitions for 2025.
As Greenyard is already plant-based, it gives them a head-start and a competitive advantage. They intend to step-up their investments in innovation and technology, leveraging the data in its value chain.

• Greenyard’s ambition is to become a plant-based powerhouse with financial ambitions by 2025.
• Greenyard has the ambition to benefit from the trends towards healthy, low processed, plant-based food, a fast-growing market with huge potential.
• Over the coming years, Greenyard is targeting further growth through a wider product portfolio of convenient, plant-based products, in combination with digital services.
• Greenyard has the ambition to increase sales by around € 650m to reach € 5bn sales by FY24/25, implying a CAGR of 5%. At the same time, Greenyard’s ambition is to grow adj. EBITDA € 35-45m to reach € 200-210m by 2025 (previous target € 190m), implying a CAGR of 6-7%.
• By doing this Greenyard will create headroom for additional investments in plant-based and potential M&A in the coming years, while safeguarding a leverage ratio of 2,0x-2,5x (recall that the leverage decreased from 3.9x end 1H last year to 2.8x end September’21). One year later than we had in our model, Greenyard will put dividends back on the agenda after FY22/23.
• We incorporated in our model that Greenyard recently refinanced, and scaled back, its factoring program providing additional stability.
• Our new Target Price of € 13.10 (was € 12.25) is a mix of our SOTP valuation (€ 13.4) and our DCF fair value (€ 12.8). As a result, we maintain our BUY rating.
Underlying
Greenyard NV

Greenyard processes and commercializes fruits, vegetables, and ready-to eat food products in France, the United kingdom, Germany, Belgium, other EU-countries, and internationally. Co.'s operation is divided into two divisions: The frozen division known as Pinguin and the canning division under the name of Noliko. The Frozen division offers frozen vegetables and fruits, deep-frozen vegetable dishes, and ready-to-use meals to retail, food service, and food industry. The Canning division processes vegetables and fruit from the field into preserved foods in cans and jars. The division also prepares ready-to-eat food such as soups, sauces, dips and pasta dishes.

Provider
KBC Securities
KBC Securities

We are a financial services provider for several types of professional clients, each with distinct needs.

 

Analysts
Guy Sips

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