GBL Private assets to dictate future equity story

Since the start of FY24, GBL has returned -6.5% and has seen its discount widen to a massive 45.2% (vs. an estimated NAVps of €121.5). We believe that GBL's lacklustre performance is mainly due to the poor performance of some listed stakes such as Ontex, Umicore and Concentrix while investors also veered away from the stock since ~70.0% of NAV is derived from listed assets. Going forward, we think GBL's equity story will be centred around the attractiveness and performance of its private assets. Currently, private assets (incl. GBL Capital and Sienna IM) make up for 35.4% of GBL's total portfolio and, with the new office being opened in Milan, could soon hit the 40.0% allocation target or could even go beyond – this could be the catalyst that lowers GBL's discount back to historical average(s). We note that discount is currently at 45.2%, much higher than the 2yr and 5yr average of 36.5% and 32.4% respectively – we believe that the current price presents an attractive entry point and a long-term buying opportunity. We reiterate our BUY rating but raise our TP from € 91 to € 100.