Hal Trust Top tier investment firm with a fading appeal

HAL Trust, a prestige investment firm, has delivered over 100x returns to shareholders since 1977 with a small, talented team. Its portfolio stands out with maritime assets like Boskalis (33% of NAV), Vopak (14.3%), SBM Offshore (5%), and well-known names like Coolblue and Siltronic. Despite this, HAL's share price is down 20% from its peak in 2016 and the stock is trading at a 24% discount to book value. Apart from sluggish portfolio performance, we see four reasons for fading investor interest: a €2bn cash drag, a complex Bermuda-Dutch structure and new tax burdens. In addition, transparency improved but communication efforts remain low, possibly due to the overhang of a Van der Vorm-led privatization. Our Target NAV of €218 per share, adjusted for a 30.7% discount (20.7% historical avg. plus 10% for complexities), gives a €152.0 target price. With no long-term strategy insights and minimal communication, building a strong investment conviction remains challenging. As the stock recently hit our target, we move from BUY to ACCUMULATE with a €152.0 TP.