Immobel Model update after FY25 results: prudent outlook at higher margins

Yesterday, Immobel reported FY25 results in line with our expectations at € 456,4m operating income (internal view) vs € 445,4m KBCSe, +2,5% YoY. The recurring gross margin came in at 19,9% vs. 20,0% KBCSe, +10,2% YoY. The margin recovery is driven by higher exit values in the Belgian residential market. On an underlying net results basis the net margin improved from 1,3% in FY24 to 5,6% in FY25. The € 125,0m bond maturity of June 2026 is covered by the € 202,0m headroom (internal view). The gearing ratio decreased further to 58,9% down from 66,7% in FY24. Given the bond repayment and view on long term shareholder remuneration, there is no dividend over the FY25 result. The FY26 outlook of € 400-450m operating income is prudent and we believe there is room to outperform. We model further improvement of the development margin to 20,5% vs 19,0% previously. Both dynamics offset one another, leaving our DCF output unchanged and supporting an unchanged €?28.0 target price. We reiterate our Buy recommendation.