We reviewed our Immobel figures, following a market update for 2024 and adjusted our estimates.2024 is expected to be much better (sales +50%) yet still subdued (ROE remaining at mid single digits).Slow market reopening could imply a tough 2025 due to a delayed investment market reopening, the liquidity impact of the Proximus towers acquisition at the end of 2024 and a sizeable refinancing wall coming up.While revenues are expected to grow, we continue to see short-term pressure on the balance ...
Adj. Net profit lands at EUR 12m, Net profit including impairment & one-off costs lands at EUR -38m.Immobel proposes an optional DPS at EUR 1.20 (vs. EUR 3.05 in 2022).We reiterate our ‘Hold' rating, but put our TP ‘Under Review'.Immobel hosts an analyst meeting today at 9:30 CET.More details in our Note issued this Morning.
In this note, we perform a reality check on the BE residential market. Immobel portfolio has 52% exposure to BE and 73% to residential (1H23). In recent quarters, housing inflation has lagged the general consumer price index. We believe that Immobel will continue to sell residential RE units at a lower rate that holds the debt ratio below critical levels (incl. JV debt). We made some adjustments to our model and valuation metrics. We lower our TP from €63.0 to €40.0 and reiterate our Accumulat...
Net profit lands at EUR -2.8m. Adj. Net profit (not accounting for the exceptional cost of EUR 9.6m) lands at EUR 6.5m.Gearing comes in at 58.5%, and cost of debt stands at 3.0%.No guidance is given (reiterated or updated) for the FY2023.The company hosts an analyst meeting today at 10:00 CETMore details in our Note issued this morning
We adjust our estimates given the ongoing real estate market and postpone the sale of the office assets (ca. EUR 150m) to 2024.We expect that the start to 2023 was relatively good for IMMO, but we are less certain about H2.In line with our study, we increase the WACC to 7.7% to account for the higher risk in the market for a developer, and the higher interest rates.We downgrade IMMO to ‘Hold' and decrease our TP to EUR 42.0 (from EUR 59.0). The impact mainly comes from the higher WACC which...
The first week after MIPIM is the traditional timing for our KBCS Real-Estate conference. The FY22 result reports have been digested by investors and companies had a chance to meet with industry experts to set out their strategies for the near future. This conference book has 3 main sections : A Macro-Economic background, since last year this has changed significantly and will continue to drive returns. An ESG section with an intro to the panel discussion on WE 22/3 16h00 + Networking event af...
Today we revisit the investment case of Immobel after having created a new financial model from scratch. We believe that the new model better captures management's guidance and closely mimics key aspects of Immobel's business namely Gross Development Value (GDV), portfolio rotation, debt, and inventories, while also incorporating our views and assumptions on the business. During FY22, Immobel's business significantly slowed down due to much lower demand for residential units, higher interest/mor...
A director at Immobel bought 300 shares at 71.430EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing ...
Today we publish a conference book to our Real Estate event that starts tomorrow. It contains 18 company profiles and a section on general and specific factors that can impact the real-estate segments over the next couple of quarters. The real estate market was already impacted by most of these factors even before the Russian troops crossed the Ukraine borders. However, the conflict accelerates certain trends. We have no clue on how long this conflict will last, but are convinced the fall-out an...
AKKA: FY21 REBIT beating our estimates by 14% Atenor: FY21 – Approvals pick up Biotalys: Bringing next generation of Evoca to market in 2026 Brederode: Strong FY21 results driven by PE boost GBL: FY21 NAV of € 143.9 ps, up 13.3% y/y Immobel: FY21 Results – Wide range outlook Jensen-Group: Strong growth in profitability and efficiency
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