KINEPOLIS - Post COVID-19 Impact: "No Time to Die"
We lowered our FY20 visitors expectation for Kinepolis Group as a whole from 46.3m to 40.8m. As a result our FY20E sales decreases from € 620m to € 556.6m, FY20E EBITDA (post IFRS16) decreases from € 198.1m to € 170.8m; FY20E EBIT (post IFRS16) is lowered from € 128.4m to € 101.1m and FY20E net profit ends at € 56.9m (was € 78.7m before COVID-19 impact). Although the impact on FY20 is significant, we did not change our FY21E and beyond forecasts so the impact on our DCF-based valuation (20% is for FY20E to FY25; 17% for year +6 to +10 and 63% from infinity), is minimal (from € 66.6 to € 65.8) so we maintain our € 66 Target Price and BUY rating.Kinepolis Group NV is a Belgium-based company, which is primarily engaged in the operation of cinemas. The Company's activities are divided into such business units, as Box office, In-theatre sales, Business-to-business (B2B), Film distribution and Real Estate. The Box office unit includes sale of the tickets. The In-theatre sales unit is involved in the sale of snacks and related articles. The B2B unit takes care of the organization of corporate events and the sale of screen advertizing to corporate customers. The Film distribution unit includes all activities related to movies showed in the cinema. The Real Estate is responsible for the property management and utilization. Additionally, the Company has a Technical department, which delivers technological support to Kinepolis facilities. The Company is present in Belgium, France, Spain and Poland.
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