Kinepolis Group Short term blue sky with some potential dark clouds on the horizon

The recent published attendance numbers give us comfort that we see continued improvement in box office visitors. The current bad weather conditions in some of their main markets (e.g. Belgium, The Netherlands) will also be at least supportive (and this could well be the understatement of the year) for Kinepolis' 3Q visitor numbers.

Although 4Q and 2024 can be impacted by movies that are pushed back due to the ongoing Hollywood strikes, we maintain our Buy and 59.0 Target Price. We agree with ‘Vanity Fair' that a mass exodus of films from 2023 is already underway as actors walk picket lines instead of finishing and promoting. But we think that the title of Vanity's article hinting Hollywood strikes may kill moviegoing this year, is a little exaggerated. We now bank on 34.1m FY23 visitors with a strong 3Q and a weaker 4Q (was 34m before with a reverse q/q performance) and 39.0m visitors in FY24 (was 40.6m).