MaaT Pharma We're confident going into MaaT013's phase 3 topline in aGvHD

With recruitment completed for the phase 3 trial of lead program MaaT013 in aGvHD, topline data with GI-ORR is pinned for January 2025. We preview the upcoming readout and expect 15-20% upside if our base case materialises. We update our model to increase our peak sales expectations for MaaT013 in aGvHD to € 170m (from € 100m), which ups our TP to € 16 (from € 14). While this initial program represents a smaller commercial opportunity for MaaT, we see the results for MaaT013 as key to validate the company's approach in haemato-oncology, potentially de-risking development of next in line MaaT033 (microbiome therapy, oral capsule) in the larger opportunity of post-transplant prophylaxis (we est. peak sales of € 410m). We're confident going into the upcoming phase 3 readout for MaaT013 in aGvHD, and reiterate our BUY rating.