Montea FIRST LOOK : Confident guidance for FY23, no cracks
Montea reported EPRA earnings of EUR 67.7m vs. our 67.0m expectation. The EPRA EPS of 4.10 easily beat their guidance of 4.00 at the 1H22 report. Our 4.13 estimate was slightly over-estimated by the average share count from the EUR 102.6m capital increase in November. The rental income came in line at EUR 90.7m vs. 90.0m expected. Montea issued FY23 EPRA EPS guidance of EUR 4.20 and reconfirmed its FY24 EPRA EPS of 4.30 (Track24). The rental income can increase as the company will invest EUR 160m over FY23 at higher than estimated yields above 6% (own developments) and continued indexation. We believe that a mild recession is still the most likely outcome for Western-Europe over FY23-24. However, near-shoring of production and supply chain optimisation keeps demand for logistics space buoyant and occupancy rates high. The price/NTA premium now amounts to 6% vs. a peak of 110% in December 2021. We maintain our Accumulate rating and TP of 90 EUR. After 1H22 results, we reduced our EPRA EPS23 from 4.20 to 4.05 on expectations of lower investments and higher costs. We will review our numbers after the analyst meeting at 11h00.Montea Comm VA, formerly Montea CVA, is a Belgium-based real estate investment trust specialized in logistics and semi-industrial real estate in Belgium, the Netherlands and France. The Company's property portfolio represents approximately a surface of 584,694 Square meters (m2) across 37 sites. Its group companies include, among others, Montea Management NV, Montea Comm. VA, Acer Park NV, Montea Nederland NV, Montea Almere NV, Montea Rotterdam NV, SCI Actipole Cambrai, SCI Sagittaire, SCI Saxo, SCI Sevigne, SCI Socrate and SCI 3R. In addition, the Company also partners with Decathlon.
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