Montea Shifting gear on Track24
In this note, we update our FY23-24 estimates and issue FY25 expectations. Last year, we reduced our EPRA EPS23 from 4.20 to 4.05 on expectations of lower investments, higher costs and EPS dilution. Now, we raise our EPRA EPS23 back to 4.20 and FY24 to 4.33. Montea issued FY23 EPRA EPS guidance of EUR 4.20 and reconfirmed its FY24 EPRA EPS of 4.30 (Track24). A 2.4% YoY increase in EPRA EPS23 is impressive as the average share count increases by 10.4% into FY23. The rental income can increase as the company will invest EUR 160m over FY23 at higher than estimated yields above 6%. Montea shifts investments more to own developments and benefits from continued indexation. We believe that a mild recession is still the most likely outcome for Western-Europe over FY23-24. However, near-shoring of production and supply chain optimisation keeps demand for logistics space buoyant and occupancy rates high. The price/NTA premium now amounts to 6% vs. a peak of 110% in December 2021. We maintain our Accumulate rating and TP of 90 EUR.Montea Comm VA, formerly Montea CVA, is a Belgium-based real estate investment trust specialized in logistics and semi-industrial real estate in Belgium, the Netherlands and France. The Company's property portfolio represents approximately a surface of 584,694 Square meters (m2) across 37 sites. Its group companies include, among others, Montea Management NV, Montea Comm. VA, Acer Park NV, Montea Nederland NV, Montea Almere NV, Montea Rotterdam NV, SCI Actipole Cambrai, SCI Sagittaire, SCI Saxo, SCI Sevigne, SCI Socrate and SCI 3R. In addition, the Company also partners with Decathlon.
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