PostNL Heading towards a crucial 4Q23
Yesterday morning, PNL reported a weak set of 3Q23 results, driven by soft parcel volumes, negative mix effects and ongoing labour shortages. After incorporating the results and slightly lowering our 4Q23 estimates, we now expect the normalized EBIT for 2023 to come in slightly below the “lower end” of the guided € 100 – € 130m range. During the analyst call, PNL also mentioned that new elements occurred after the 2Q23 update which could put the planned 150bps margin improvement for 2024 at risk, hereby mainly referring to a further uptick in labour costs. After revisiting our estimates, we lower our TP from € 2.1 to € 1.7ps and reiterate our Hold rating.PostNL is a mail, parcel and e-commerce corporation with operations in the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. Co. has been assigned by the Dutch government to carry out the UPD (Universele Postdienst, Dutch for Universal Postal Service). Carrying out the UPD requires, amongst other things, Co. to deliver mail throughout the Netherlands five days a week (Tuesday through Saturday) and to maintain enough mailboxes in the country. ACM is charged with monitoring and enforcing the execution by Co. Co.'s operations are organized along three business segments: Mail in the Netherlands; Parcels; and International. Co. maintains over ten networks across thirteen countries.
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