PostNL Model update post 4Q23 & conference call feedback
PostNL reported a FY23 normalised EBIT of 92m, in line with the preliminary results on January 26th. However, the FY24 normalised EBIT guidance of € 80 – € 100m comes in below both kbcs and css expectations of respectively € 120m & € 118m, driven by a further uptick in labour costs and negative mix effects at parcels. PNL further mentioned that it is becoming increasingly challenging to meet the required cost savings at mail and intends to move away from next day delivery for standard mail over time. We reiterate our Hold rating but lower our TP from € 1.7 to € 1.4ps.PostNL is a mail, parcel and e-commerce corporation with operations in the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. Co. has been assigned by the Dutch government to carry out the UPD (Universele Postdienst, Dutch for Universal Postal Service). Carrying out the UPD requires, amongst other things, Co. to deliver mail throughout the Netherlands five days a week (Tuesday through Saturday) and to maintain enough mailboxes in the country. ACM is charged with monitoring and enforcing the execution by Co. Co.'s operations are organized along three business segments: Mail in the Netherlands; Parcels; and International. Co. maintains over ten networks across thirteen countries.
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