PostNL Playing the waiting game until the end of year peak
Following the publication of the 2Q22 results on Monday, we have updated our PNL model, hereby lowering our underlying EBIT estimate to € 149m or the bottom end of the newly guided range (€ 145m - €175m). With the outlook being heavily skewed towards 4Q22, we believe that PNL is lacking short-term triggers whereas there are some risks on the horizon, including news regarding the change in Belgium's postal law or the launch of Amazon's own webshop in Belgium. Based on our updated estimates, DCF model and peer group multiples, we lower our TP from € 3.9 to € 2.5 ps and change our rating from Buy to Hold.PostNL is a mail, parcel and e-commerce corporation with operations in the Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Belgium, and the United Kingdom. Co. has been assigned by the Dutch government to carry out the UPD (Universele Postdienst, Dutch for Universal Postal Service). Carrying out the UPD requires, amongst other things, Co. to deliver mail throughout the Netherlands five days a week (Tuesday through Saturday) and to maintain enough mailboxes in the country. ACM is charged with monitoring and enforcing the execution by Co. Co.'s operations are organized along three business segments: Mail in the Netherlands; Parcels; and International. Co. maintains over ten networks across thirteen countries.
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