Recticel Model update – Structural growth drivers but no ST support from market
We have finetuned our earnings model post the 1H24 results release, with adjusted EBITDA forecasts for FY24-26 lowered by between 2% and 5%, reflecting the competitive landscape (mainly in the Boards business). Despite the reduced forecasts, we still expect Recticel to grow adjusted EBITDA by c. 31% in FY24 and by 19% in FY25, benefiting from savings initiatives and the Rex integration & growth. Building markets are bottoming out, but we do not expect meaningful improvement in momentum until 2025 at the earliest. While we still believe in the strategic attractiveness of Recticel's (mainly) polyurethane focussed insulation offering, we deem valuation is about fair and hence we have a Hold rating on the stock.Recticel is engaged in the production of a variety of polyurethane foams that are used in the furniture, technical, automotive, bedding and insulation industries. The Flexible Foam Business Line covers the manufacture, conversion and marketing of flexible polyurethane foam. The types of flexible foams are classified as Comfort, Technical Foams and Composite Foams. Co. is also engaged in the manufacture of foams used in mattresses and slat bases. In addition, Co. manufactures rigid polyurethane and phenolic foams for thermal insulation. Co.'s automotive activities include: manufacturing moulded seat cushions, window encapsulation and manufacturing interior trim components.
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