Umicore FIRST LOOK: FY23 results close to CSS, FY24 guidance falls short to CSS

Umicore's FY23 adj EBITDA dropped by 16% and was 1% above our forecast and 1.5% below CSS. The FY24 adj EBITDA guidance range of € 900-950m represents at midpoint a 5% drop and falls short to our (952m) and CSS (979m) forecasts, with Recycling the key culprit for the y/y drop due to lower metal prices. We continue to believe Umicore is well placed to play an important role in the electrification of transportation as we believe that global OEMs are still determined to establish local supply chains in Europe and North America. HLM and solid-state technologies will in our opinion support the position of NMC-chemistries outside of China in the coming decade. Whilst RBM is the major growth driver for Umicore in the remainder of this decade, battery recycling has the potential to become a major growth driver into the next decade. We will revise our short term forecasts but maintain our Accumulate rating for now.