VGP Model update, recurrent EPS increases with pipeline acceleration
At the 10m25 update, VGP gave optimistic guidance on its pipeline and JV closings as it completes projects over 2H25 and 1H26. VGP differs from most REITS due to its JV-structure. Initially it develops for its own portfolio and recycles the capital afterwards by selling into a JV. Hence, VGP realises valuation gains in 2 stages. First, at the start of the asset construction as an unrealised gain estimated by experts (not included in EPRA EPS). Secondly, as the asset is transferred to a JV on the actual transfer price (included in EPRA EPS). This asymmetric treatment of profits makes it harder to estimate the EPRA-like profit as it depends on the amounts and timing of JV transfers. VGP does not report consolidated EPRA results, but we calculate a “recurrent EPS” based on EPRA. As VGP now accelerates it developments as a pre-cursor to JV closings, we increase our recurrent EPS expectations. Despite the share price recovery, we maintain our BUY rating.VGP NV is a Belgium-based real estate development company that constructs and develops industrial real estate and ancillary offices, which are rented out to clients on long term lease contracts. The Company operates in three business segments: the Development activities segment is focused on the identification and acquisition of the land and development of the infrastructure, the design of buildings, the coordination of architectural and engineering aspects, the administration to obtain the necessary permits, the tendering and coordination of the construction works, including site management, and the facility management of the real estate portfolio; the Property Management and Leasing services segment is responsible for managing the operation of the buildings, and the Facilities Management services segment is responsible for managing the operation of the buildings and performs all actions, such as maintenance services, waste management services and maintenance greenery, among others.
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