Whitestone Group Gold rush fuels GFI's record performance

Whitestone published the full 1H25 report which provides a deeper colour on the portfolio performance. NAV climbed 14% HoH to €121m (€17.1 per share), driven by a €14.8m portfolio revaluation. The standout performer was GFI. The gold trader delivered its entire FY24 EBITDA in just six months, a 100% increase YoY, on the back of record gold prices (higher margins) and more volatility (higher volumes). In addition, GFI is expanding though new branches, the Stevens & Cie acquisition and digital initiatives. For FY25, we forecast GFI's valuation at €51m, based on our estimates. This is a ~58% increase from FY24-end. With NAV at €121m in 1H25, Whitestone is on track to exceed our FY25 NAV target of €131m (€18.9ps). In addition, discounts across the peer group have contracted in recent months. Given Whitestone's outperformance, clean balance sheet and credible 2030 doubling plan, we now target a 20% discount (previously 30%). This lifts our target price to €15.0 from €14.0. We reiterate our BUY recommendation.